Thursday, November 7, 2013

Morning Memo: Thursday, November 7, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  • Asia....mostly lower with a cautious tone ahead of ECB and BOE meetings today, US Q3 GDP data today, labor data (NFP) tomorrow and China's Communist Party Plenum on Saturday.
  • Australia...employment data disappoints.  Rises by only 1,100 vs 10,000 expected. Unemployment was unched @ 5.7%.  Analysts note that the RBA's rate cutting has not done much to improve labor markets, but has driven home prices higher.
  • Russia...cut its long-term growth forecasts (annual growth rates out to 2030) to 2.5% annually from 4.3%.
  • Europe...generally lower ahead of ECB and BOE meetings.  (Recent slip in inflation readings has many anticipating a cut by the ECB.)
  • Of interest:
    •  
  • more later....
  • LATER:
    • ECB cuts 25bps!!!  Rates @ 0.25%.
    • US GDP Q3 beats at 2.8%.  That's the good news.  The not so good news is that growth was boosted by an uptick in inventories which could be tapered off in Q4.  Also, Consumer spending was underwhelming, rising 1.5%, compared to Q2's 1.8% rise.  Housing remained strong.

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.
Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Morning Memo: Wednesday, November 6, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

  • Asia...mixed in relatively tight ranges.
  • Japan...weaker Yen sends Nikkei slightly higher.
  • China....Communist Party Meeting starts at the end of this week. Clues to economic reforms in focus.
  • Indonesia.. Q3 growth @ 5.6% is slowest since '09 as slowing exports to China and high local inflation and a widening current account deficit collectively take its toll.
  • UK..Industrial Production numbers for September stronger than expected.
  •  
  • Eurozone...Markit Composite PMI for October still above 50 but slightly lower than September's reading.  See chart from Markit and the FT:
  •  
  •  Of interest (only fyi!  Not in any way meant to be a recommendation!), related to our recent posts re "Buying EM by Not Buying EM!":
  • more later.....
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.
Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Morning Memo: Tuesday, November 5, 2013

ICYMI...yesterday's posts re Emerging Market investing. 

Follow-up to Previous Post re EM: "Buying EM By Not Buying EM!"

Buying Emerging Markets By Not Buying Emerging Markets!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  • Asia...markets mixed.  Early gains faded.  Focus on events later this week including the beginning of the China Communist Party Third Plenum where markets are looking for info on reforms, and US Non-Farm Payroll data for October, both on Friday.
  • China...HSBC/Markit Service PMI rose to 52.6 fr 52.4, showing improvement in New Orders. (NOTE:  This is direct contrast to yesterday's Official data from the Gov't that showed slowing in New Orders!).
  • Australia...RBA leaves rate unched, as expected, at 2.5%.
  • India...Service sector PMI still below 50, though up from previous month to 47.5 fr 46.1.  Sensex fell on the news, first time in five days.
  • UK..Service PMI highest since '97!!  Particularly important considering Services represent over 3/4 of the UK economy.  The Pound surges on the news.
  • European Commission....lowers forecast for Eurozone for '14 slightly to 1.1% fr earlier forecast of 1.2%.  For this yr, growth declining by 0.4% as expected.  Evidence of improvement in conditions, but not yet out of the woods, according to the ECs report.  To quote: 
    while the macroeconomic imbalances that have plagued the eurozone throughout the three-year crisis are diminishing and prospects for recovery have strengthened, the ongoing need for several governments to reduce their debt burdens continued to weigh on growth.
    Olli Rehn added:  "But it is too early to declare victory: unemployment remains at unacceptably high levels. That's why we must continue working to modernise the European economy."
  • European markets....generally lower on EC lowering forecasts for growth.
  • ECB...meeting on Thursday.  Markets looking for response to last week's weak CPI data showing weak domestic demand broadly throughout Europe.
  • US....of note fr JPM research:
  •  
  • more later.....
  • Later:
    • US..
 
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.
Posted by at No comments:

Monday, November 4, 2013

Follow-up to Previous Post re EM: "Buying EM By Not Buying EM!"

Good article in the WSJ re the issues surrounding sustainable growth in EM countries.  Yet another reason why 'indirect' ownership might be the better risk-adjusted tactical approach....fyi...

Asked by one reader where I stand on the article's points, optimistic or pessimistic, I replied:
Optimistic.  I think EM countries will continue to emerge and evolve.  Especially middle classes who want ‘stuff’!  (George Carlin would appreciate that!) It’s inevitable, imho, that people around the world in the most remote places, will no longer be hidden from modern luxuries.  Technology is already creating an awareness that I believe will translate into a growing consumer demand for ‘stuff’.  As for the industrial space, as I’ve said for a while now, I think there’s lots of inventory of those durable goods already in the hands of EM countries, so lots of the low hanging fruit for Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) are probably picked.  They’ll still have lots of biz there, but it’ll get tougher.
I’m looking to add to consumer and tech names…Nike (NKE), McDonalds (MCD) Unilever (UN), Cinemark (CNK), Himax (HIMX) (semi conductors for ‘wearables’ and other things consumer), etc.
Check out my latest blog post re the McKinsey study suggesting that by 2025 EM countries will represent almost ½ of the Fortune Global 500 less than 100 now.  That argues for using US and European based companies to seize the EM opp more than direct ownership, unless the latter presents real value with reasonable transparency, visibility and corporate governance.


Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl NKE, MCD, UN, CNK, HIMX, CAT, DE.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Posted by at No comments:

Buying Emerging Markets By Not Buying Emerging Markets!

Quick note re Emerging Market opportunities:

For some time, our exposure in Emerging Markets has been positioned 'indirectly', by owning developed country companies that have a significant portion of their business in emerging countries.  The following chart from McKinsey shows that currently, an overwhelming majority of the world's largest companies are in the developed world, though over time, that is likely to change, and according to McKinsey, the EM-based companies could reach close to 1/2 of the Fortune Global 500 by 2025!  In the meantime, for a variety of reasons including corporate governance, transparency, visibility, and geopolitical risk management, the 'indirect' ownership approach is likely to be very useful especially at times of perceived overvaluation of EM country stock markets.
More on this theme over time.....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Posted by at No comments:

Morning Memo: Monday, November 4, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  •  Asia...opened with some strength in reaction to stronger than expected China Official Non-Manufacturing PMI data, at 56.3, the highest level in 14 months.  But a slowdown in New Orders dampened the enthusiasm w/the overall  report.
  • China...Communist Party meeting begins Nov 9 where reforms will be front and center on the agenda and watched closely by markets.
  • Japan...closed for holiday.
  • Australia...retail sales jumps highest amount in seven months, helped by low interest rates, and an improving housing sector and mining sector.
  • Thailand...big loser in the region on political and social tensions running high over an amnesty bill that focuses on the self-imposed exile of the brother of the current PM.
  • Europe....generally higher on good earnings news (especially in the bank sector) and on an investor confidence indicator put out by Sentix showing the highest level in two years.
  • German...Markit's PMI for October was stronger than expected.  
  • Eurozone Markit PMI summary for October:
  •  
  •  
  • US...October Non-Farm Payroll data due out Friday.
  • more later....
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, November 1, 2013

Morning Memo: Friday, November 1, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  • Asia...mixed markets, but most under the dark cloud of yesterday's drop in the US markets, and still concerned about this week's FOMC message that tapering talk remains on the table.
  • China...Official Manufacturing PMI data from the government rose for the fourth consecutive month in October to 51.4 fr 51.1 in Sept, which was good news, but the guts of the data showed divergence between some strength among larger firms vs some struggling in the smaller size companies.  Also, a drop in the New Orders and New Export Orders sub-indexes raised concerns about the sustainability of recent growth.
  • South Korea...last month's exports beat expectations!  
  • India...Sensex hits new record high!  The equity market rebounded from the summer woes/lows by 18%, with many crediting the new central bank governor with restoring investor confidence.  Today's rally came despite disappointing PMI data from Markit/HSBC that showed a number still below 50. (49.6)
  • Indonesia...heavily reliant on exports of palm oil, rubber and coal to China, saw exports drop more than expected last month, raising more concerns about an already slowing economy.  Q2 GDP had fallen to 5.8%, slowest pace in three years.
  • Taiwan and Vietnam....Markit/HSBC PMI data for both countries were strong citing stronger demand both domestically and in export sectors.
  •  PMI Summary from Markit/HSBC:

  •  
  • Europe...lower opening, partly on lingering concerns over yesterday's data in the Eurozone showing higher levels of unemployment and softer inflation, indicating the economy's fragility.
  •  
  • more later...
  • Later:
    • US ISM Mftg growth better than expected in October, @ 56.4% highest since April 2011.
    • Markit US manftg PMI final number for October @ 51.8, up fr initial est of 51.1, but below 52.8 in Sept.
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)