Morning Memo: Friday, October 25, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:36am ET...

• Asia..generally lower on combination of concern over liquidity issues in China as overnight lending rates continue to rise, along w/earnings data in the region that was either uninspiring or outright negative in tone.
• Japan...stronger Yen hurt exporters.  Nikkei drops over 2%.  Also, inflation level nears five-year high as overall weaker Yen has raised imported goods prices. While more inflation is a goal of Abenomics, the inflation that Abenomics wants to see is more demand driven inflation, not simply price driven due to fx moves!
• China...short-term funding rates continue to rise, refreshing bad memories of last Spring's spike in rates.  (Separately, China announced a new Prime Lending Rate which will be used as a benchmark for other loan rates in the country. The rate will be an average of nine Chinese bank lending rates).
• Australia....it's been a good week for Australian equities as they've hit five-year highs on an overall stabilizing view of their primary trading partner's economy: China (despite the short-term funding issues).
• South Korea...Q3 GDP grew at 3.3%, fastest rate in three years, and beating analyst expectations.
• Flow of funds:  ANZ reports weekly flows into Asia equity markets continues to rise.  Take note, as reported in The FTs fastFT:
• 
  
• 
  
• Europe...generally lower in early hours.
• Germany...IFO business sentiment survey drops to 107.4 in October, missing estimates and disappointing markets. First drop in six months.
• UK...BOE Gov Carney announces a change in BOE policy towards banks, essentially providing more 'backstop' measures when/if needed including accepting broader range of collateral on loans to banks, lending for longer terms and reducing the cost for accessing the Bank's help.
• UK...Q3 GDP inline w/expectations at 0.1% q/q, 1.5% y/y growth.
• more later.....
• later:
• Durable Goods...headline number in line at +3.7%.  Ex-transportation weaker than expected -0.1%.

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Thursday, October, 24, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia...Mixed markets.  Many opened firmer on HSBC's Flash PMI estimate for China @ seven month high of 50.9 for October vs 50.2 in September.  Weaker Yen vs USD allowed the Nikkei (export sensitive) to rally a bit.
• China...earlier market optimism on the HSBC PMI data was doused as 7-day repo rates continued to climb!  Concerns over liquidity and monetary tightening, repeating a spike in rates witnessed last Spring, put most markets back on their heels later in the session.
• India...equity market trades near all-time high.  After cratering this past summer on tapering fears and the resultant impact on depressing the Rupee, talk of tapering being postponed, has given new life the Sensex, especially on foreign investor demand. The market is up over 8% ytd, most of that coming in the past month.
• Europe....Eurozone PMI fell in October to 51.5 from September's 52.2.  Despite the drop, being above 50 (indicating expansion) for the fourth month in a row, the decline from Sept had only a small sobering impact on the markets.
•  
• Spain..Unemployment rate still close to 26% (25.98)!
• Italy...Berlusconi faces new corruption charges, alleging he bribed a senator in '08 in efforts to join him in bringing down the then center-left govt.
• US...Dept of Justice looking into 9 other banks re mortgage related activities, similar to the case against JPM that resulted in a $13Bn settlement earlier this week. 
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Wednesday, October 23, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

•  Asia...markets lower after opening higher on the heels of yesterday's US uptick.  The softer than expected US jobs data yesterday, instead of raising fears about earnings and slow growth, initially heightened expectations for a significant delay in any Fed tapering.  That euphoria helped open Asian markets higher, but a softer USDollar vs many Asian currencies began to raise concerns especially in export dependent countries that their stronger currencies would hurt exporters, so equity markets turned down.
• China...one of the mainland stock exchanges, ChiNext, seemingly modeled after the US NASDAQ exchange for small tech related companies, has been up close to 80% this year, until this week in which it's lost over 7% since Monday.  (Editorial quip:  Not hard to find uses for the word "bubble" in China....).
• China...Central Bank appears to be withholding liquidity from overnight interbank lending market, seen as possible replay of last Spring when overnight funding rates surged and was viewed as a tightening, 'anti-bubble' move by the Central Bank.  One explanation for the possible turnaround in markets broadly in the Asia session.
• Australia....CPI higher than expected, 2.2% vs 1.8% exp.  While still within the RBA's 2-3% target range, the data did cause AUD to trade higher.
•  
• ECB...released its parameters for stress-testing banks, meant to start in Nov '13 and take one year.  Bank shares in Europe have reacted negatively on the thought that more capital will be required under this program.
• UK...Bank of England minutes from last meeting show unanimous vote in favor of keeping rates and QE unched.  Notes faster decline in unemployment pace (the key metric that the BoE has cited as a policy determinant).  
• Editorial note:  before getting too excited about improving labor market conditions, make note of this chart from The Economist which might provide some sobriety:

Today's #Dailychart shows that long-term unemployment increasingly plagues Europe and America http://t.co/GHRUW3suOG pic.twitter.com/H7PpqgAsFQ
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 22, 2013

• 
  
• Spain...gov't reported Q3 growth at positive 0.1% q/q, first q/q growth in two years!
• US...tech stocks will likely continue to be in focus following yesterday's introduction of new tablets and phablets from several companies, all in a race to capture market share in that space.
•  
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Tuesday, October 22, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia...markets mixed ahead of today's US Non-Farm Payroll data for September.
• China...soaring new home prices, highlighting fears of a housing bubble, sent Chinese markets lower, and put a damper on otherwise positive sentiment in other markets.
• Australia...equity markets hit new highs on ongoing optimism about China's economy (Australia's largest trading partner) and on guidance by BHP that iron production will be higher than earlier expected indicating economic optimism.
• Europe...quiet open ahead of US jobs data.
• Of note:
• several tech firms will be releasing new 'tablets' and 'phablets'  (combination of smartphone and tablet) today.  Will likely raise focus on related equities.
• Netflix's strong earnings and guidance sent the stock soaring in after-hours.  Focus will likely be on other internet businesses.
• more later...
• Later:
• US..Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept @ 148k vs 180k exp, but August and July revisions added another 9k net.  Unemployment rate, one of the Fed's target metrics, dropped to 7.2% with the Participation Rate staying steady @ 63.2%.  The broader measure of un- and under-employed, U6, also dropped slightly to 13.6% fr 13.7%.  Overall, suggestive of continued slow, steady improvement in the the labor market  Initial market reaction was higher. 
• From MarketWatch.com, some pictures to tell a thousand words (hit the link in the embedded tweet below to see several key jobs-related charts:

Breaking down the jobs report with charts: http://t.co/6RQDTC59qP pic.twitter.com/x7jIJ2eOxX
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) October 22, 2013

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Monday, October 21, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

•  Asia...markets generally higher, still upbeat on the end of the US Gov't shutdown, and on prospects for delayed tapering in the US given the ongoing uncertainty on budget issues and given the seemingly more dovish posture of new Fed Gov Yellen.
• Japan...BOJ Gov Kuroda says keeping monetary steady will keep the goal of reflating the economy on track.  The goal of reaching 2% inflation in 2 yrs, he indicated, appears to be making good progress.  The BOJ's quarterly report showed broad based upticks in economic assessments.
• Japan...Trade Deficit, worse than expected.  15th month of deficit.  Yen weakened.  Equities rallied.
• China...last week's GDP data (7.8%) continues to leave markets feeling positive on growth along w/comments by officials indicating more government economic support could be in the offing.
• Europe...markets opened slightly higher, but are mixed, as early gains have given ground  
• US data on Existing Home Sales today @ 10am ET.  Tomorrow, Non-Farm Payroll numbers for September (delayed from two weeks ago due to the US shutdown), consensus appears to be at 180k.  Earnings parade continues.
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Friday, October 18, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia..markets generally higher.  China's Q3 GDP came in line with expectations @ 7.8%, Industrial Production was better than expected, and Retail Sales was just slightly below.  Collectively, it signaled to markets that China is still growing at a reasonable pace, although skeptics noted that increased Government spending helped prop up the GDP data, and that though the Ind Prod and Retail Sales were close to expectations, they were lower m/m, indicating some slowing.
• Europe....playing off of China's data and yesterday's US post-debt-ceiling deal uptrade in the US, is generally higher in early hours.
• UK..Mortgage Lending up 32% in Q3 y/y!  (that's not a typo!).  The housing market continues to show strength with huge tailwinds from the Government's "Help to Buy" program.
• Of interest:
• FT's fastFT reports:


• HSBC's research...says inflation in rising across much of Asia and that should be good for Gold prices rising.  Noting that much of global gold demand comes from Asia.
  

• Funds flowing into Asia equity markets surged in the week ending Oct 16 according to data from ANZ.
• 

• US NonFarm Payrolls data for September, which should have been released last Friday but wasn't due the shutdown, will be released next Tuesday.  And October's data will be pushed back one week to Nov 8.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.