This blog is no longer operative and any posts should only be viewed for nostalgic and entertainment purposes, NOT for any guidance in investment decisions nor for any other investing activities.
Soos Global Capital Advisors is no longer managing money.
Our founder and CIO, Ed Leventhal, is now a private investor and any public commentary or publications of his will be as such, the views and opinions of a private investor, not those of manager of a registered investment advisor firm.
If you have any questions or thoughts to share, please reach out to Ed on LinkedIn.
Soos Global Market Musings
Welcome to the blog-o-sphere of global-macro thematic value opportunities...commentary & thoughts!! (For information and entertainment purposes only....not investment advice.)
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Thursday, May 19, 2016
"UNDER CONSTRUCTION"....
SOOS GLOBAL MARKET MUSINGS IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TO ADD ENHANCED FEATURES!
DURING THIS TIME, WE WILL NOT BE POSTING....BUT WE INVITE YOU TO CONNECT WITH US ON LinkedIn WHERE WE WILL BE POSTING DAILY CHARTS AND UPDATES OF INTEREST.
ALSO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR THOUGHTS AT INVESTORRELATIONS@SOOSGLOBAL.COM.
WE LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING FROM YOU!
THANKS!
ED
DURING THIS TIME, WE WILL NOT BE POSTING....BUT WE INVITE YOU TO CONNECT WITH US ON LinkedIn WHERE WE WILL BE POSTING DAILY CHARTS AND UPDATES OF INTEREST.
ALSO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO CONTACT US WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR THOUGHTS AT INVESTORRELATIONS@SOOSGLOBAL.COM.
WE LOOK FORWARD TO HEARING FROM YOU!
THANKS!
ED
Friday, October 16, 2015
"CHITS" (CHarts In The Spotlight)...Recent Updates...Food for Market Thought...Oct. 16, 2015
"CHITS" (CHarts In The Spotlight)
are Soos Global's charts of interest...noteworthy market moves that, at
a minimum, should inspire consideration for possible trade-able ideas.
But before we go there, as always, first a note from friendly compliance folks:
$NKE is 'wow'ing the Street this wk https://lnkd.in/eHCpyCq … https://lnkd.in/efnJ5ju …
Will ECBer's Nowotney's "it's obvious" comments from yesterday (re further ECB stimulus) do for $VGK what Draghi's 2012 "whatever it takes" comment did for the $XEU Euro?
$C's earnings yesterday helped defy the 'Death Cross'....will there be follow-thru to the upside or a rollover???
Before getting all giddy over lower UE rates and Jobless Claims, read this...
$IYT struggling at Fib resistance points....will it turn around, head north and break through??
$NEU=range bound since Aug, lagging w/in sector. Sector up vs S&P. Will earnings be catalyst to revisit higher range?
$EMC $DELL deal.. Deal structure not igniting follow-thru buying..Will 'shopping period' bring a better deal?
DowTheorists take note..is the rollover in TRANS presaging a broader mkt rout?
Eager to hear insights and thoughts on all of the above!
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs including C, EMC, NEU, NKE. Positions may change at any time without notice.
But before we go there, as always, first a note from friendly compliance folks:
(A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition to legal language below): If you’re reading this post and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details on changes made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions are taken in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles. As such,what we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT intended, in any way, as advice for use by others. Readers are reminded that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes only! Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice. We're delighted to hear thoughts and comments. Thx!)
$NKE is 'wow'ing the Street this wk https://lnkd.in/eHCpyCq … https://lnkd.in/efnJ5ju …
Will ECBer's Nowotney's "it's obvious" comments from yesterday (re further ECB stimulus) do for $VGK what Draghi's 2012 "whatever it takes" comment did for the $XEU Euro?
$C's earnings yesterday helped defy the 'Death Cross'....will there be follow-thru to the upside or a rollover???
Before getting all giddy over lower UE rates and Jobless Claims, read this...
Why Length of Unemployment Affects Finding a Job
Why Length of Unemployment Affects Finding a Job$IYT struggling at Fib resistance points....will it turn around, head north and break through??
$NEU=range bound since Aug, lagging w/in sector. Sector up vs S&P. Will earnings be catalyst to revisit higher range?
$EMC $DELL deal.. Deal structure not igniting follow-thru buying..Will 'shopping period' bring a better deal?
DowTheorists take note..is the rollover in TRANS presaging a broader mkt rout?
Eager to hear insights and thoughts on all of the above!
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs including C, EMC, NEU, NKE. Positions may change at any time without notice.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
All Aboard??? Is The Train (literally) About To Leave The Station???
(A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition
to legal language below): If you’re reading this post
and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is
something we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details
on changes made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our
portfolio decisions are taken in a much broader context of our overall
portfolio strategies and our assessment of each of our investor's unique
financial profiles. As such, what we do, and when we do it, is
specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT intended, in any way, as advice
for use by others. Readers are reminded that all comments posted here are
for information and entertainment purposes only! Any commentary,
especially those that include specific mentions of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions',
is made solely for those limited informational and entertainment purposes, and
NOT as advice. We're delighted to hear thoughts and comments. Thx!)
In the past, I’ve shown variations of the chart below of
Norfolk Southern’s (NSC) stock price, noting the shellacking that the rail
stocks have been taking this year, in most cases due to the dramatic decline in
commodity prices in the energy sector, and especially with regard to lower
demand for coal transport in the face of cheaper natural gas and oil.
To be a bit more concrete on the order of magnitude of the
issue, take a look at the second chart below from the Association of American
Railroads website ( www.aar.org ) showing the
monthly volumes of carloads of coal that have been hauled by rails in the past
few years, noting how dramatic the decline has been in 2015!
Yesterday, to compound the issue for rail stocks, the US EIA
(Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov
) released a report
stating that both coal demand and production are likely to continue to fall.
They noted:
Slower growth in world coal
demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other
coal-exporting countries have all led to a decline in U.S. coal exports. Lower
mining costs, cheaper transportation costs, and favorable exchange rates will
continue to provide an advantage to mines in other major coal-exporting countries
compared with U.S. producers……EIA expects a 7% decrease in total coal
consumption in 2015,… Lower domestic coal consumption and exports, combined
with a slight increase in coal imports, are projected to contribute to an 86
MMst (9%) decline in production in 2015.
Going through the Association of American Railroads
list of other items hauled by rail, we do see some increase in rail
traffic, for example in the auto sector, which thanks to the Fed’s NZIRP (Near
Zero Interest Rate Policy) has been a strong economic sector. (See third
chart below). We also see an increase in intermodal
transportation (combination of containers and trailers on rail, ship, trucks,
etc.).The question for rail stocks, or at least one big question, is just how
much of other items’ hauling demands will be able to replace the business lost
by the decline in coal traffic. Housing and auto related sectors are
already filling in some of the void, but with the Fed on the trigger to hike
rates, there are concerns that both of these sectors might have already seen
their peaks in terms of benefits from low-to-no-interest loans.
Rails clearly have a ‘barrier to entry’ advantage which
ought to have significant value in a world where goods must still be
transported and where the internet cannot act as a disrupter by delivering tons
of commodities to one’s doorstep! So any increase in US economic growth
in sectors requiring real goods, in contrast to services, ought to be good for
rails. And even if the US economy continues to plod along at current
rates of growth, one has to wonder if the 30+% discounting in price (in some
cases, even more!) is already pricing in the worst of the commodity rout into
rail stock prices.
Again, each investor will have to opine for themselves….but
it’s at least worth considering if the train is about to leave the station.
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them
coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs and NSC. Positions may change at any time without notice.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs and NSC. Positions may change at any time without notice.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
McKinsey's Report on Corporate Profit Outlook is Today's Business!!!
McKinsey published a report earlier this week entitled "The New Global Competition For Corporate Profits".
The report "projects that the global corporate-profit pool, which
currently stands at almost 10 percent of world GDP, could shrink to less
than 8 percent by 2025—undoing in a single decade nearly all of the
corporate gains achieved relative to the world economy during the past
30 years".
By referring to a drop in corporate profits as a percentage of GDP from 10% to 8%, and by marking the time-frame as 2025, one could be lulled into complacency and consider this to be little more than an academic exercise, not relevant for trade-able ideas today. But one would be horribly wrong!! The impacts of global forces especially in and among Emerging Market countries is already impacting corporate profitability in a meaningful way.
While many examples abound, one just caught my eye last night regarding anticipated smartphone sales in 2016. The following report was released by TrendForce last night: "TrendForce Finds 2016 Global Smartphone Shipment Growth Down to 5.8% and Expects Even Apple to Face Single-Digit Growth Next Year.
One section of the report is subtitled: "Rising Chinese brands are bringing in a new round competition that will phase out some weaker players".
This highlights the ideas made in McKinsey's report about new local competitors representing formidable headwinds for incumbent players.
From an investment perspective, the focus ought to be on finding multi-national companies that are established 'incumbents' and who are already leveraging operating efficiencies, economies of scale and global interconnected footprints that allow them to maintain and grow market-share. Equally of interest ought to be new local competitors who will leverage local indigenous advantages in order to establish themselves as viable long-term players against larger, more multi-national incumbents. (The challenge, of course, of finding countries with acceptable corporate governance standards underlies the search!)
McKinsey's report is clearly today's business, and with equity markets having given up much ground in recent weeks, the valuation search has become more compelling.
Will keep you posted as our search progresses.
Best,
Ed
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
By referring to a drop in corporate profits as a percentage of GDP from 10% to 8%, and by marking the time-frame as 2025, one could be lulled into complacency and consider this to be little more than an academic exercise, not relevant for trade-able ideas today. But one would be horribly wrong!! The impacts of global forces especially in and among Emerging Market countries is already impacting corporate profitability in a meaningful way.
While many examples abound, one just caught my eye last night regarding anticipated smartphone sales in 2016. The following report was released by TrendForce last night: "TrendForce Finds 2016 Global Smartphone Shipment Growth Down to 5.8% and Expects Even Apple to Face Single-Digit Growth Next Year.
One section of the report is subtitled: "Rising Chinese brands are bringing in a new round competition that will phase out some weaker players".
This highlights the ideas made in McKinsey's report about new local competitors representing formidable headwinds for incumbent players.
From an investment perspective, the focus ought to be on finding multi-national companies that are established 'incumbents' and who are already leveraging operating efficiencies, economies of scale and global interconnected footprints that allow them to maintain and grow market-share. Equally of interest ought to be new local competitors who will leverage local indigenous advantages in order to establish themselves as viable long-term players against larger, more multi-national incumbents. (The challenge, of course, of finding countries with acceptable corporate governance standards underlies the search!)
McKinsey's report is clearly today's business, and with equity markets having given up much ground in recent weeks, the valuation search has become more compelling.
Will keep you posted as our search progresses.
Best,
Ed
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
Friday, September 4, 2015
Are You A "CATASTROPHOBE"? I'm NOT!!! Here's Why....
Just a quick summary of thoughts as we close out the week,
and the summer, and head into the holiday weekend…but first a word from our
friendly compliance folks:
(A Friendly and
Important Disclaimer Note (in addition to legal language below): If you’re reading this post and are not currently
investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something we should discuss!),
please bear in mind that while we share details on changes made to our
portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions are taken
in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our
assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles. As such, what
we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT
intended, in any way, as advice for use by others. Readers are reminded
that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes
only! Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions
of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited
informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice. We're
delighted to hear thoughts and comments. Thx!)
In a recent email exchange with an investor who had asked
'what's it like in the markets these days', I said 'brutal'.
Given the activity of the past few days, and especially
reflecting on the past two weeks, I'll ditto that and double it!
Incredible volatility persists. Even in futures markets,
usually the bastion of supreme liquidity, bid/offer spreads have widened, price
swings, sometimes on minimal volume, have been extreme, and reaction to news
and data seems to be binary….it's either euphoric or panic, with heavier
leaning towards the latter.
It's helpful, if not critical, at times like this, to step
back from the intraday and day-to-day activity, and take a look at the bigger
picture.
The bottom line is that the world is a bit of a different
place now than when the Fed first started talking about hiking rates many
quarters ago. Back then, US growth was starting to pick up nicely, China
was seemingly still growing strong enough and continuing its reforms, Europe
was recovering from recession and dealing with periodic flare-ups on Greece,
and corporate earnings were growing w/outlooks that were positive. Now,
recent earnings were a yawn, outlooks/guidance by many firms were outright
depressing, China is in a battle with markets over policy credibility and their
growth rate is slowing markedly, and US growth, while extant, is underwhelming
and not yet at a level that could be considered the locomotive for the rest of
the world.
So where does that leave investors? In my mind, the
'quick-fix' mentality of many investors, expects to see a rapid rebound from
these past two weeks' correction and a return to a surging bull market,
viewing the recent selloffs as mere corrective pauses in an otherwise bull
run.
I don't agree. I believe that rough waters will
continue to surge around markets, not just for many days ahead, but likely for
many weeks or even months! To be clear, I do not agree w/those who I call
'catastrophobes' who say that we're headed for a
catastrophic global economic meltdown coupled with a bear market that will
persist for years. I do think, however, that the days are over where just
because the Fed kept rates at near-zero and other Central Banks accommodated
eagerly meant higher stock prices. We're likely going to be in a new
chapter of global growth where the subtleties of policy responses and
initiatives will likely play a larger role. Take China's recent
devaluation of the Yuan. That was viewed by many as the right thing to
do, but the execution of that policy change was handled miserably and, in turn,
set off a globally negative market response. The same action, handled better,
might actually have been greeted by markets as a good thing in helping to
promote China's growth through an increase in exports which had in fact been
struggling due the Yuan's linkage to the strengthening USDollar. If
the subtleties of the policy response had been better articulated (vs the
silence that accompanied it!) perhaps it would not have raised concerns about
an all-out currency war and deflation-contagion.
Whether today's NFP data was enough to feed the Fed the fuel
they are looking for in order to hike short-term rates, is still not clear, but
whether it's in September or in coming months, a small one-and-done rate hike
of say 25bps should not, imho, impact US growth, earnings or global economic
growth meaningfully. I would not view it as a 'foot on the brakes', but
rather as a normalization of rates in the short end of the curve which is
viewed as necessary in order to more properly allocate capital on a
risk-adjusted basis. Credit-differentiation is almost impossible when
everyone is borrowing/lending at near-zero interest rates! So I
understand the interest in raising short-term rates. But, as I've said
often in previous missives, to think that long-rates need to go up, especially
in an environment where commodity prices have plummeted and in which labor
excesses (despite labor market improvements) are still plentiful, seems
unfounded. Deflation remains public enemy number one, not inflation!
With that in mind, I view the recent markdown in equity
prices as bringing valuations more into line with global realities. I'm
optimistic, mildly, about US growth, I'm increasingly (from a near-zero
starting point!) optimistic about Europe's growth, I'm concerned but not
panicked about China, and I remain very optimistic about the prospects for
continued global emerging growth of middle class consumers. As
such, I remain cautiously long equities around those themes, though I
have reduced the percentage in the portfolios overall, keeping names that I
expect to hold while we ride out the storm. These are largely
stocks that have historically behaved defensively with strong balance sheets
and good dividends. I also increased the allocation to fixed income
(and similar 'yieldy assets') as part of the defensive move. And finally,
I still have a larger than usual cash allocation which I've been using to
nibble when valuation markdowns appear overdone.
I believe that we're in the middle of a storm….not a "perfect
storm" of the catastraphobe variety, but a storm that should keep
volatility and negativity in play. At this time, however, I'm battening
down the hatches and taking precautions to ride it out, all the while on the
lookout for a break in the clouds and smoother sailing.
With that as a natural segue into a still-summertime
weekend…..
Enjoy the long weekend and get ready for 'seatbelts and
helmets' at Tuesday's opening bell!
Best,
Ed
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them
coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
Thursday, August 27, 2015
High-Yield Bonds Spreads....A Canary in the Coal Mine????
(A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition
to legal language below): If you’re reading this post
and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something
we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details on changes
made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions
are taken in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our
assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles. As such, what
we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT
intended, in any way, as advice for use by others. Readers are reminded
that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes
only! Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions
of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited
informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice. We're
delighted to hear thoughts and comments. Thx!)
Interesting thought….I’ve always felt that the bond market
is the ‘canary in the coal mine’ when it comes to warning about upcoming
trouble in equities.
Take a look at the first chart below at where the CRB
(commodity index) is now vs the past 10yrs……@ lows!!! Lots of that is
energy and industrial commodities falling off the cliff, very heavily
influenced by China’s slowdown. Lots of high yield bond debt is from
companies in those spaces. For obvious reasons, with all the tumult
in the energy sector, those bonds have been marked down, widening
spreads. Take a look in the second chart below at the yield spread
widening in high yield bonds that started in earnest back in June. While
high-yield spread widening isn’t always a direct correlation to equities
(inverse), it does, very often, precede equity market routs. This time,
it does seem to have sounded an alarm!!
Time to buy stocks and high-yield bonds?
Is the worst over?
Well, with expectations of dovish Fed comments likely to
come out of Jackson Hole starting today, possibly….given that there’s enough
carnage at the moment to start some cherry picking….but…..
After that?????
Stay tuned…..
If you have any questions, or comments, please keep them
coming in!!
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"! And share with others!)
(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs. Positions may change at any time without notice.
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