Sunday, August 3, 2014

Cybersecurity: Hard to find 'pure plays'. China: Hard to find 'fair play'!!

A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition to legal language below):   If you’re reading this email and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details on changes made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions are taken in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles.  As such, what we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT intended, in any way, as advice for use by others.  Readers are reminded that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes only!  Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice.


Thanks for reading.  And please email or call w/any questions or to discuss in more detail.   Also, please visit http://stockcharts.com/public/1587236 to see our charts of close to 100 stocks/etfs on our radar screen.

Best, Ed
 (If you'd like to exchange thoughts on this post or on other subjects, please connect with me through the Private Chat tool on the right side of this page, or if you'd like to email thoughts, please do so through the Contact Form feature.  For public airings, please use the Comment feature below.  Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!)
Cybersecurity is one of our key global-macro thematic value opportunites.  Trying to find companies purely focused on this business is tough, as many have been swallowed up by larger, multi-product tech firms.
Symantec (SYMC) is a company we've had on our radar under the spotlight for a while.  This past weekend, China announced, reportedly, that for State procurement programs, Symantec (and Kaspersky) would not be included!  Take a look at the Reuters' article.  So SYMC might qualify for a 'pure play', but with China, it's facing challenges on 'fair play'.
We're going to watch closely how this news impacts the stock.
Check out our chart!  And stay tuned for updates! (Visit all of our CHITS: Charts In The Spotlight at http://bit.ly/1rRGeUM )

 Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.   

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Energy: Wind/Solar Outpacing Hydro...This Is "Hot Air" To Pay Attention To!!

Before getting to the "hot air"....
A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition to legal language below):   If you’re reading this email and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details on changes made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions are taken in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles.  As such, what we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT intended, in any way, as advice for use by others.  Readers are reminded that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes only!  Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice.

Thanks for reading.  And please email or call w/any questions or to discuss in more detail.   Also, please visit http://stockcharts.com/public/1587236 to see our charts of close to 100 stocks/etfs on our radar screen.

Best, Ed
 (If you'd like to exchange thoughts on this post or on other subjects, please connect with me through the Private Chat tool on the right side of this page, or if you'd like to email thoughts, please do so through the Contact Form feature.  For public airings, please use the Comment feature below.  Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!)



 And now, the 'hot air'.....



Fyi….One of our global macro themes in the energy space focuses on the growth in the generation of and use of renewable energy sources.  The tweet below from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows some very interesting dynamics within the renewable basket, with sources from wind and solar (ergo: the pun, “hot air”) starting to outpace hydro (for a long time, the primary renewable in the US).  I’d recommend a read of the EIA article linked in the tweet.  Here are some clips:

April marked the eighth consecutive month that total monthly nonhydro renewable generation exceeded hydropower generation. Only a decade ago, hydropower—the historically dominant source of renewable generation—accounted for three times as much generation in the United States as nonhydro renewable sources

EIA projects that 2014 will be the first year in which annual nonhydro renewable generation surpasses annual hydropower generation

Hydropower capacity has increased by slightly more than 1% over the past decade, although actual hydropower generation can vary noticeably by season depending on water supply conditions. Wind capacity, on the other hand, has increased nearly tenfold over that same period. Although wind often has lower capacity factors than hydropower, wind generation increased from 3% to more than 30% of total renewable generation between 2003 and 2013.

We’re constantly in the hunt for optimal ways to invest in this theme.  Currently, one of our positions is TAN, an etf which is a basket of solar related stocks.  (And while it wouldn’t be the primary reason for investing in Google (GOOGL), it’s noteworthy that Google has made major investments in the alternative energy space including wind farms!)

I included a chart that shows TAN vs Oil (the West Texas Intermediate Oil index).  There is a great deal more to what drives TAN than just the price of a barrel of WTI, but it’s noteworthy that since the ISIS/Iraq and Israel/Hamas troubles in the Middle East have flared up, the correlation of the two has been more positive.  As oil has been coming off those crisis-shock highs, TAN is following along.  At some point, however, I believe that TAN will hold its own based on the longer-term theme cited in the EIA article, and I’ll be looking to add to the position.

Will keep you posted as our positions in this space grow.
Best,
Ed



 Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs including TAN.  Positions may change at any time without notice.     


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Russia Sanctions Might be European Bank Nightmare! And What About Credit Spreads in the US?



FYI….check out tweet below from FT and my response.  
Their article is a value read. 
And their chart re outstanding debt is certainly worth considering….

 Embedded image permalink





FYI…A little closer to home…..the three charts (and accompanying commentary) on ZeroHedge’s site are worth considering! (see link below in the tweet)
As I’ve written in recent missives, (see chart at bottom of this email and go to this link) I do think rates will back up, but the economy does not appear to be strong enough to warrant a major move.  Rather, the self-correcting nature of rising rates in terms of slowing growth and, in turn, keeping the Fed in an ‘easy’ mood, is more likely to make any major move of rates to higher levels into a possible entry point.
Will keep you posted.
Ed
 (If you'd like to exchange thoughts on this post or on other subjects, please connect with me through the Private Chat tool on the right side of this page, or if you'd like to email thoughts, please do so through the Contact Form feature.  For public airings, please use the Comment feature below.  Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!)





Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.     

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Soos Global Investors Portfolio Updates: BTN, ACN, DVA, SIX, HIMX, MCD



Soos Global Investors:  FYI….As a follow up to a post on July 10 in which I highlighted some changes that were made to our positions in both the CORE and QRP (Qualified Retirement Plan) strategies,  below are some additional portfolio moves that were made in the past few days. 

p.s.:  A Friendly and Important Disclaimer Note (in addition to legal language below):   If you’re reading this email and are not currently investing with Soos Global (which, of course, is something we should discuss!), please bear in mind that while we share details on changes made to our portfolios, it's important to consider that our portfolio decisions are taken in a much broader context of our overall portfolio strategies and our assessment of each of our investor's unique financial profiles.  As such, what we do, and when we do it, is specific to our investor portfolios and is NOT intended, in any way, as advice for use by others.  Readers are reminded that all comments posted here are for information and entertainment purposes only!  Any commentary, especially those that include specific mentions of 'buying' or 'selling' or 'positions', is made solely for those limited informational and entertainment purposes, and NOT as advice.


Thanks for reading.  And as I mentioned above, please email or call w/any questions or to discuss in more detail.   Also, please visit http://stockcharts.com/public/1587236 to see our charts of each of the stocks mentioned below, as well as of other stocks on our radar screen.

Best, Ed
 (If you'd like to exchange thoughts on this post or on other subjects, please connect with me through the Private Chat tool on the right side of this page, or if you'd like to email thoughts, please do so through the Contact Form feature.  For public airings, please use the Comment feature below.  Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!)



Friday, July 11

Ballantyne Strong (BTN)…..sold the remaining shares today in order to exit the position. In a defensive mode, prefer to be out of less liquid assets.

Accenture (ACN)….had set 80 as target exit price.  The company doesn’t fit well into any of our main global macro themes at this time.  It, like IBM, has been challenged by a world where businesses and governments are still scaling back expenses and are less likely to engage big computer consulting companies like ACN or IBM.  Exited the position for now.  Will continue to follow the space, especially IBM, given its recent announcement re working w/Apple to co-develop business mobile applications.



Monday, July 21: 

DaVita Healthcare (DVA)…Raymond James downgraded DVA today from “market outperform” to “Market perform”.  The stock went down over 3%.  The fundamentals still look good. The theme remains in place.  Used the generally sour mood in the market and the apparent over reaction to the downgrade as a chance to increase the allocation from 1.9% of the portfolio to 2.5%.



Six Flags (SIX)…been watching SIX for a while as a good candidate for one of our key global macro themes:  the emergence of a middle class in many EM countries around the world.  It was resting on support and tested it several times. Today, on good earnings but disappointing sales, the stock got hammered, down over 6%.  I used that selloff to buy a starter position of 1.0%.  The company has more debt that I’d generally like to see, but the cash flow is good, the dividend is strong, and the overseas expansion plans, esp in China, are impressive (using local developers to do the heavy lifting while SIX gets royalties and mgmt fee income).



Himax Tech (HIMX)….I’ve been looking to add to the HIMX position into the selloff.  For some time now, HIMX has suffered from reports that one of its big customers had seen slower sales, and as a result, had accumulated more inventory than desired, and had to work off inventory to remove an unexpected glut.  That put enormous pressure on HIMX.  Since then, there have been questions about how fast ‘wearables’ would take hold as the next generation technology.  All of that caused HIMX stock to suffer.  Into the latest round of general market malaise largely driven by increased geopolitical risks, I added to our HIMX position. I still believe that HIMX will prosper as a semiconductor company in a space that is already popular including screens for tv’s, handheld devices, tablets, etc.  But wearables, I believe, will have their day, and I believe soon!  More and more ads are focusing on the attributes of wearable technology to do all sorts of things from counting mileage walked, to counting calories, to taking blood pressure, etc.

Our total position is now 2.6%, up 1%.

In sum, HIMX is not a ‘.com’ pipedream company with only ‘hoped for sales’!  It’s a real, product producing semiconductor mftr with broad markets and customer bases, and advanced technology that ought to do well as the tech revolution/evolution proceeds.



Wednesday, July 23:

McDonalds (MCD) has been taking it on the chin in the past couple of weeks, after hitting highs at around 103, the stock was knocked back by same-store sales numbers disappointing the markets, plus recent news of a scandalous meat supplier in China, and finally yesterday’s disappointing Q2 earnings, sales and outlook.  The stock breached the 95 level which appeared to be good valuation.  It also has a dividend at over 3.3% (going ex on 8/28).  I like the ‘staple’ type of stocks in the discretionary sector as a more defensive play with the market up at all time highs, and MCD I believe will bounce back as the global emerging middle class evolves. 

I took the position in both strategies up to 3.25% (from 2.3 in the CORE and 2.7 in the QRP).



As always, please email or call w/any questions or to discuss in more detail.

I’ll keep you posted.

Best,

Ed


Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs, DVA, SIX, HIMX, MCD.  Positions may change at any time without notice.