Morning Memo: Monday, September 30, 2013

ICYMI:   Our latest thought piece on thematic investing:

From Potholes to Pipelines: Investing in Infrastructure Build-out (CAT, DE, KYN, WM, XLU)

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Note:  Review of last Thursday (Dow up 55) and Friday (Dow down 70)
• US Budget debate (debacle?) taking center stage, keeping equity markets on edge.
• US House of Representatives votes to delay funding of Obamacare for one year. 
• US Senate puts the funding back in.  The budget battle is in full gear as the September 30 fiscal yearend draws near.
• Japan CPI strongest in five years, seen as early sign of success of Abe's stimulus policies aimed at igniting the Japanese economy.
• Jobless Claims better than expected.
• Pending Home sales better than expected.
• Personal Income and Spending better than expected.
• US Q2 GDP third estimate left unched at 2.5%.
• Good economic data in the US still stimulates 'tapering' fears, putting pressure on equities.
• Italian politics heating up as Berlusconi's recent conviction on tax fraud and upcoming one year prison (house arrest) sentence, seems to have only emboldened him and his party to make demands on the existing coalition. Ministers from Berlusconi's party resigned from PM Letta's coalition govt. Talk over the weekend of Berlusconi calling for snap elections.
• Eurozone Retail PMI data (from Markit) showed a drop in September to 48.6 from over 50 in August. Despite the relatively light showing in September, the Q3 average (49.5) was highest since Q2 2011.
• US Tsys rallied on the week.
• Oil fell as the US involvement in the Syrian conflict remains in 'dialogue' rather than in 'military action'.
• President Obama and Iranian President Rouhani spoke by phone re trying to resolve the differences on Iran's nuclear program.  (All while reports surface that Iran has hacked US Navy computers).
• UN Security Council votes unanimously to secure and destroy Syria's chemical weapons.  Russia pushed this diplomatic solution to ward off a US military strike.
• Earnings info from FactSet: 
• Estimates for Q3 EPS have fallen 2.6% since June 30.
• Y/Y growth in EPS is expected to be 3.2%.  On June 30, that y/y estimate was for  6.5%.  Lower guidance from a substantial percentage of S&P companies explains the drop.
• 82% of S&P companies that have issued Q3 EPS guidance have issued negative guidance, compared to a five-year average of only 62%. 
• MONDAY MORNING:
• China..HSBC Mftg PMI final # disappoints @ 50.2 in Sept vs prelim estimate of 51.2.  The report showed some increase in activity from US and European customers, but still questionable strength in domestic demand.
• Asia stocks broadly lower on  China's disappointing PMI and on US budget battles.
• Japan...BoJ meeting this week.  Also, Prime Minister Abe likely to announce  he'll proceed w/a sales tax increase to 8% fr 5% for next year.
• Europe...equity markets lower on China's PMI, US budget issues, and Italian politics!  
• Italy..Berlusconi's ministers have left the gov't.  PM Letta is scrambling to re-form a coalition.  Italian bonds yields have jumped close to 20 bps to 4.67%.
• more later...
• Later:
• Germany...disappointing Retail Sales, +0.5% vs exp 0.9%.  Bund 10yr off 1bp to 1.775%.

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

From Potholes to Pipelines: Investing in Infrastructure Build-out (CAT, DE, KYN, WM, XLU)

Investing in infrastructure build-out around the globe has been a primary investment theme of ours for the past few years.  Early beneficiaries of the demand for building-related equipment, supplies, technology, etc included the likes of Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE) and others who, in many cases, given their familiar global brands, were able to capture first-mover-advantage in Emerging Countries where infrastructure build-out has been robust.  

While much (though not all) of the low hanging fruit has already been picked, and while competition, especially from many of the Emerging Countries themselves, is making the profit potential more challenging, the trend around the globe for building new roads, tunnels, bridges, airports, train stations, pipelines for energy transport, etc is likely to remain strong.  

With that in mind, the piece below from Standard & Poor's is of particular interest, not because it presents a new case for the importance of building up a country's infrastructure to the overall economic health and advancement of that country's standard of living, but because the focus is shifted from the international stage right back here to the US!!

I've embedded the report below.  Among the many interesting facts presented, this paragraph certainly sets the stage:

 According to the World Economic Forum, the U.S. ranked seventh in competitiveness in 2012, falling from second in 2009. The World Economic Forum ranked 144 countries by assessing several economic factors. The U.S. ranked 25th in quality of infrastructure, 34th in health and primary education, and 140th in macroeconomic environment...The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) assigned a grade of "D+" (poor) to the quality of infrastructure in the U.S. in its 2013 infrastructure report card. However, this is an improvement from "D," originally assigned in 1998. The ASCE study estimated that the nation's quality of transportation, energy, water, and public facility capital needs required an investment of $1.6 trillion to achieve a grade of "B" (=good) using its definitions.

  
Enough said?  Perhaps, though I'd still recommend a read of the whole piece, as the case is made in more detail.

From an investment perspective, one has to weigh the growing urgency of infrastructure build-out in the US against the reality of the fiscal crises being faced from virtually every level of government, from the Federal level in Washington, to the State and Municipal governments, all cash-strapped and looking for ways to NOT spend money at this time!  For example, take a look at the chart in S&P's report showing the fall off in debt financing and in overall public construction spending:

The tight money belt situation is very likely to continue for some time, especially with the hostile environment in Washington surrounding budget negotiations.  That said, it's still an investment theme that will likely not go away, for every day that the government coffers remain deficient in funds available for proper infrastructure development, is another day that allows the existing infrastructure to deteriorate further and therefore require even more remedial care.  Furthermore, 'deficient' doesn't mean 'zero'!  There are significant investments going on all the time around the US, especially in the energy sector, as more and more companies are participating in the build-out of the natural gas and oil exploration, transportation, refining and (even) exporting segments of those industries!  

The S&P report broadly categorizes the overall infrastructure needs in two ways: 

Physical infrastructure (popularly referred to as utility and transportation infrastructure) lays the groundwork for economic development whereas social infrastructure (healthcare, affordable housing, and higher education) provides health services, improves quality of life, and develops the skillsets needed for the economy.

We're constantly in search of quality companies that play to both the physical and the social components of the US infrastructure needs.  In addition to Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE)  that we mentioned above, we currently own Kayne Anderson (KYN), a corporate entity that invests in Master Limited Partnerships that primarily build, develop and service energy related pipelines and infrastructure around the US.  We also own Waste Management (WM) which is involved in all aspects of waste collection, disposal and transformation into other usable sources.  We also own utilities through the ETF XLU, as many of the companies in the ETF themselves are on the front line of this issue.

We all know some form of the expression that "long journeys start with the first step", and I'd only add that whether its the first step or the whole journey, any meaningful pothole along the way makes either one very unpleasant!  The road to repair of US infrastructure is surely going to be classified as a "long journey".  The needs in the US, as cited by S&P, are clear.  The challenges in funding the fix, are equally clear.  But investigating how best to invest in companies who will turn this problem into a opportunity seems worthy of investor time and energy!

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs, including CAT, DE, KYN, WM, XLU.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

S&P: US Public Finance:  Short-Term Savings on Infrastructure Spending Could Prove To Be Short Sighted by Standard & Poor's

Morning Memo: Wednesday, September 25, 2013

NOTE:  Morning Memo will not be published tomorrow and Friday.

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Asia...mostly lower on the heels of yet another negative day in the US.  Tensions in Washington over the budget and debt ceiling debates are weighing on markets as the Sept 30 fiscal yearend of the US approaches and the fears of a government shutdown grow.
• Australia...was bucked the negativity in other Asian equity markets and traded higher on the back of a strong earnings report by a large retailer, David Jones Ltd.
• Japan..traded lower along w/most of Asia, with focus on the US.  A small-business sentiment survey, however, was up slightly in September fr August, and is at the highest level since '07.  This optimism amongst small businesses is despite the expected hike in the sales tax (a key part of Abe's economic program to help reduce gov't debt) which is meant to be implemented in April (rising from 5 to 8%).
• Europe...generally lower across the board in early hours on the heels of Asia and US.  Focus on US fiscal problem commanding center stage.
• US...Texas Senator Ted Cruz was pulling an 'all-nighter' on the Senate floor, in a filibuster over Obamacare. These kind of theatrics on both sides of the debate are weighing on global markets as a compromise on budget issues seems more remote.
• more later....
• German....consumer sentiment index from GsK slightly better than expected.
• US..Durable Goods rose 0.1%, on stronger auto sales.  Better than expected.  Core capital goods, excl defense and transportation were up 1.5% following a 8.1% drop in July.  Overall slightly better than expected but not very robust data.
•  

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Tuesday, September 24, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Asia..equity markets generally lower on the heels of yesterday's US selloff.  Last week's post-Fed no-taper move euphoria for global equity markets and especially for EM currencies appears to have been short-lived.
• Indonesia...Rupiah hits new multi-year low!
• Among the very few bright spots in Asia trading were some firms related to Apple's (AAPL) supply chain, after Apple's stock rallied 5% yesterday on word that weekend sales of the new iPhone had exceeded expectations.
• European...equity markets opened slightly higher, ahead of German IFO business sentiment survey.
• Germany...IFO survey for September @ 107.7, slightly lower than expected.  Current-conditions came in lower than expected, but forward-expectations were more optimistic.
• Banks...reports of more lawsuits coming against JPMorgan (JPM) (and others) for mortgage related securities.  This is in addition to yesterday's news about Federal charges against a group of banks for the Libor pricing scandel.  Citigroup (C) announces 1,000 job cuts from its mortgage business as higher rates slow down mortgages and refi's.
• more later....
• US..Case Shiller home prices in line @ a y/y incr of 12.4%.  But the pace of month-over-month increases is slowing. 
• US..Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) in line, but lower in Sept fr Aug.
•  

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs and C.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Monday, September 23, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

•  Note:  last week was a "tale of many cities" for the equity markets.  
• The week started off with exuberance on the hawkish Larry Summers stepping out of the picture, leaving Janet Yellen, seemingly more dovish, as the likely next Fed Gov, and less likely to taper imminently.  
• Then Russia and the US reached some kind of accord re Syria's chemical weapons.  
• Tuesday was calm ahead of Wednesday's FOMC accouncement as the market still anticipated a $10-15B taper.
• The Fed's move NOT to taper at all at this time sent the dollar lower, commodities higher, equities higher, bond yields lower and emerging market currencies higher.
• Then came some sobriety on Thursday, and lots more on Friday (Dow down 185 pts) when economic data came in stronger than expected (Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and Trade Deficit).  
• Fed Governors' speeches late in the week also pushed equity markets lower on hints that tapering might be possible as early as the October FOMC meeting.
• Debt ceiling and budget noise out of Washington was another negative catalyst for equity markets.
• Finally, in a sign that emerging nations are not fully out of the woods as it relates to their currencies, India surprised with a rate hike in defense of the Rupee.
• Weekend...
• the tragedy in Kenya continues, with scores dead, and the terror risk once again flashing more fiercely on investor radar screens.
• Germany...Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats wins the election, but falls short of an absolute majority, leaving her in search of a coalition partner.  This leaves Merkel possibly trying to form a coalition w/the center-left party who came in second, the Social Democrats, who share similar pro-Euro views as Merkel.  The anti-Euro party did score well, however, in a reminder of the tensions within Germany and across Europe related to austerity, bail-outs, etc. 
• China...HSBC prelim manufacturing PMI for September stronger than expected @ 51.2, up from 50.1 in Aug.  Shanghai market rallies, after having been closed late last week.
• Asia...overall lower session across Asia on the heels of last Friday's US selloff.
• Europe.... Markit Composite PMI for the Eurozone is at 27-mth high, with particular help from the services sector, while manufacturing slipped to a 2-mth low of 51.1 (so still >50 which means expanding, but at a slower pace).  Markets, after opening lower, have turned up on the PMI news.
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Wednesday, September 18, 2013

(NOTE:  "Morning Memo" will not be published tomorrow & Friday)
"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Tapering time!  The FOMC meeting ends today w/announcement by the Fed at 2:00 ET.  Ahead of this, markets are mixed with little in the way of bold moves.  
• Nikkei...one of the few markets up over 1% on comments by PM Abe that were bullish about his stimulus programs and the prospects for growth in Japan.
• Asia holidays...note that South Korea was closed today, and several other markets will be closed tomorrow and/or Friday, leaving some markets to have to wait until next week to respond to today's FOMC decision on tapering.
• China....Fitch, the credit rating agency, issued a report citing leverage levels in China continuing to grow at nearly double the pace of GDP!   The report notes that near term this appears manageable, it is a meaningful risk medium/longer term. A chart from the FT's fastFT:
  
• China...home prices rises continue to rise, double digits in major cities, despite gov't efforts to cool what could be a housing bubble. 
• Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam...ANZ research, cited in FT's fastFT,notes that these nations are benefiting from higher wage growth in China which is pushing certain industries to relocate to these nations in search of cheaper labor.  Their growth has become increasingly correlated w/the G3 and less totally reliant on China.  From the report: 
  
• UK...BoE minutes show unanimous 9-0 vote in favor of keeping policy unched (rates @ 0.5%, bond-buying @ Sterling 375B), implying no rate moves higher until unemployment falls to the 7% target, likely in 2016.
• US..Housing Starts and Permits worse than expected.  From calculatedriskblog.com:
• more later...
• Fed decision:  NO TAPER!!  With language nearly identical to previous releases, the Fed basically says  they'll continue to monitor data for evidence that the economy can run on its own before they begin tapering.  They lowered their GDP forecast for 2013, but raised it for 2014.  And of particular note, they cited recent tightening of conditions since tapering talk began (in the form of market induced hikes in interest rates) as a threat to continued improvement in the housing market and overall economic recovery.  Immediate market reaction:  Equities (the DJIA) went from d0wn 35 to up 90, USD fell, Gold rallied, Oil rallied and 10yr Tsy yields fell 11 bps!!

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Tuesday, September 17, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• The "Summers" rally is over, for now at least.  Yesterday's global equity market rally in response to Larry Summers withdrawing his candidacy for Fed Gov stalled overnight as most markets turned focus to today's FOMC meeting, which should culminate tomorrow with some additional information on 'tapering' plans.
• China...the Conference Board's leading economic index rose in Aug at a slower pace than July showing a deceleration in real estate activity.
• Japan...Nikkei off on stronger Yen.
• European markets also lower in early hours.
• Europe..Car sales in August disappoint, after strong July.  According to the FT, car sales in Europe have fallen 6 of the first 8 months of 2013.  The UK is the exception, with rising car sales for an extended period.
• UK..CPI slowed to an annual pace of 2.6% in Aug from July's 2.7%.  Since Carney's forward guidance was aimed at unemployment, inflation is somewhat second fiddle, but nonetheless, has to stay on course for the Bank's 2% target, which appears to be the status quo.
• Syria..the UN confirms that chemical weapons were used in Syria.  The US is confident that the Assad regime is responsible.
• JPM...reportedly will settle with the SEC on the "Whale" scandel by paying close to $800mm and admitting failures in oversight.
• US..CPI better than expected @ 0.1% m/m, core @ 0.1%, vs 0.2% exp on both.  Similarly, the number for the past 12 months was sub 2%, better than expected and below the Fed's 2% target.
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Monday, September 16, 2013

ICYMI...from last Friday, latest in our series on the "Obesi-fication of America"....

"The Obesi-fication of America"'-Part 3. China's diabetes problem.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• The Fed...Larry Summers withdrew from consideration for the Fed's Chairman role in a letter to the President citing anticipated intense Congressional wrangling over his nomination.  Janet Yellen's, the President's alleged second choice, is seen as supportive of a more moderate pace of tapering.  This has helped trigger a global equity market rally with most markets in Asia, Europe and US futures higher across the board!  USD fell.  Gold rallied.
• FOMC....two day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Markets appear to anticipate a tapering from the current $85B/mth to $75B.
• Oil fell in response to the US/Russian deal on Syria reached last Friday, but still working its way through the UN process.
• India...key inflation index higher than expected, raising risks of stagflation. Comes on the heels of recent rate hikes by the RBI in attempts to support the Rupee and prevent a rise in inflation.
• ECB's Draghi...says European recovery still in 'infancy', Europe needs to improve competitiveness, rates will stay low for extended period.  (Not new, but reaffirming).
• Italy..trade surplus rises as imports lag on weak consumer demand, but exports strong.
• US....NY Empire State Mftg Index worse than expected with the general business conditions index @ 6.3 vs 9.0 exp.  The 6mth fwd looking index, however, was generally optimistic.
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl DVA.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

"The Obesi-fication of America"'-Part 3. China's diabetes problem.

Much has been said in previous segments of our series on "The Obesi-fication of America" about the link between trends of obesity leading to diabetes and to kidney failure. 

The following post from the Council on Foreign Relations' Asia team is quite notable with regard to China's diabetes problem.  They point out  that not much exists in terms of pre-screening or out-patient facilities.  

Overall, the piece highlights the demand side of this global health problem and leaves it for investors to unearth companies that might be poised to help China, and other countries, deal with this issue.   It's on our radar screen.  Fyi...

Each year roughly 30M become diabetic in #China. CFR's @yanzhonghuang sheds light on China's diabetes epidemic: http://t.co/lbboxeENht
— CFR (@CFR_org) September 13, 2013

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl DVA.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Friday, September 13, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Asia....markets generally lower (though Nikkei closed up slightly), seemingly on some lightening up of positions ahead of next week's Fed meeting (Sept 17/18), and after a strong week across most of Asian equity markets which rallied on reduced Syria concerns, stronger economic data out of China and less fear of imminent tapering.
• Indonesia...Rupiah strengthened again on the heels of yesterday's surprise interest rate hike by the central bank.  They also reduced growth forecast for the year.
• European markets generally lower in light activity ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
• Company news of note or with potential broader market implications:
• Twitter...tweeted late yesterday that they're beginning the IPO process.
• Fresenius Helios...the German hospital and kidney dialysis company announced a large acquisition of hospitals within Germany, putting, in their words "the majority of the German population within an hour's drive of a Helios hospital".  (Editorial note:  Fresenius'  (FMS) kidney dialysis division, along w/Davita (DVA) are the two largest kidney dialysis companies in the US.  See out series on The Obesi-fication of America).
• JPMorgan..will spend $4B and add up to 5,000 people to their compliance and oversight efforts to be sure to clean up shop, and in response to ongoing intense scrutiny and oversight.
• Syria...Kerry and Lavrov continue to meet in Geneva in search of a solution.  While both sides still expressing hope for a diplomatic outcome, there still appears to be wide gaps in views on how to get there.  Being watched closely by markets.
• US..Retail Sales slightly worse than expected in August, but revised up in prior two months. Overall consistent w/uninspiring consumer activity at a roughly 2% GDP pace.
• US..Consumer Sentiment (Univ of Michigan/Thomson Reuters index) fell in Sept to 76.8, fr 82.1 in August, lowest level since April.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl DVA.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Thursday, September 12, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Asia...mixed session, as Nikkei closed slightly lower and Australia held near the previous day's levels (which were 5-yr highs) despite worse than expected employment data.  Australia showed more job losses than expected.  The AUD fell on the news.
• South Korea..holds rates steady, as expected @ 2.5%.
• Japan...the implementation of a sales tax, as part of PM's Abe's overall economic plan, appears to be center focus as the market reacts to rumors as to whether it wil or will not come to be.
• Indonesia..hiked rates 25 bps to 7.25%!  Unexpected!!  Comes two weeks after previous rate hike, both aimed at supporting their currrency, the Rupiah.
• European markets mixed in early trading ahead of talks by US Secy of State Kerry and Russia's Foreign Minister over Syria.
• UK..Bank of England head Carney will be questioned by MPs today re the UK economy and monetary policy.  This is being watched closely on the heels of yesterday's better than expected drop in unemployment, a data point that Carney's 'forward guidance' on policy is built around.
•  Company news with possible broader market implications:
• Apple (AAPL)...the negative reaction to the new release (iPhone 5c) cont'd yesterday w/the stock down 5%.  In Asia hours, related companies in Apple's supply chain were hurt as well.
• Qualcomm (QCOM)...after the close, announced a $5B stock buyback, which might support an otherwise pressured technology sector.
• Verizon (VZ)..successfully completed a $49B bond sale with maturities across the curve out to 30yrs, and extremely oversubscribed: evidence of cont'd investor demand for yield. Could lead to even more corporate issuance, beyond the already record pace of 2013.
• Jobless Claims....drops below 300k but blamed on computer-related glitches.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl VZ, QCOM.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Wednesday, September 11, 2013

September 11th.....pause to remember......

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• Markets mixed, on either side of flat, in Asia as the Syria situation is watched closely on the heels of President Obama's speech last night where he postponed the request of Congress to vote on military option, and said the latest Russian proposal on Syria turning over their chemical stockpile would be played out first.
• Australia...equity market hits five year high on the heels of recent better economic data out of China, and a strong Consumer Sentiment Survey.
• India...yesterday's better than expected trade data showing a drop in imports and surge in exports helped both the equity and currency rally yesterday, though stalling today.  The markets had been in virtual free fall for most of the summer, but have started to come back some since late August.  Latest data first meaningful positive sign re current account deficit in a long time.  
• European markets also mixed.  
• UK..Unemployment data better than expected, dropping to 7.7% fr 7.8%.
• Company news with possible broader market implications:
• Apple (AAPL)...yesterday's release of new iPhone 5 met with disappointment by the market w/AAPL down yesterday and in overnight trading.  Product pricing (too high) and functionality (not a 'wow') appeared to be the culprits.
• Verizon (VZ)...record size bond deal (needed for their acquisition of Vodafone's (VOD) stake in Verizon Wireless) to be priced today.  Estimated size @ $40B.  Demand indicated strong at over double that amount!!  Maturities across eight tranches across the curve.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
 

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl VZ.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

 

Morning Memo: Tuesday, September 10, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:15am ET...

• China..stronger than expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data boosted Asian markets as the data pointed to stronger exports and domestic demand, and with some economists suggesting that Chinese growth may have bottomed.
• Asia markets up broadly with Nikkei closing up 1.5%.
• European markets open generally higher on the back of strong Asian session.
• Syria...late yesterday, comments from Syrian President Assad in an interview with Charlie Rose, and comments by Putin, appeared to open the door to a possible turning over of Syrian chemical weapons to the int'l community as a way of avoiding a US military strike.  President Obama is still planning on addressing the nation tonight to build support for the military option should a non-military option fail to materialize.
• Italy....Q2 GDP revised down from orig 0.3% to 0.2%.  Also, 10yr Italian debt yield has risen to 4.482%, higher than Spain's 10yr (4.465%), first time since March 2012.  Political tensions rising as Berlusconi, after having been convicted of tax fraud, may have his Senate seat taken away, which could cause his party to leave the coalition gov't of PM Letta.
• Company highlights with possible broader market implications:
• Apple is meant to launch its new iPhone today.  Often this has had an impact on Apple supply-chain related stocks, and the tech sector overall.
• Verizon is planning on issuing one of the largest bond sales ever in an 8-tranche issue across multiple maturities in order to fund its $130B acquisition of Vodafone's stake in Verizon Wireless.
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
 

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl VZ.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Monday, September 9, 2013

ICYMI...See links below to our latest global macro views and portfolio positions in our August Investor Newsletter and in a published article on SeekingAlpha.

Soos Global Investor Newsletter, August 2013

Published on SeekingAlpha:  "Not an August August for Markets.  Why?  (Portfolio winners, losers and new position)"  

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00 am...

• Before starting the week, a quick recap of action on last Thursday and Friday.
• Thursday:  though the S&P climbed slightly, that hid the more compelling action of the day in US Tsy bonds, where the 10yr yield climbed to levels not seen since July 2011, flirting with 3%!  Stronger economic news on jobless claims, Q2 productivity, ISM services, and factory orders all helped keep the S&P in the black and bond yields rising as expectations of tapering grow ahead of the FOMC's next meeting on Sept 17/18.
• Friday:  The NFP data disappointed big-time, coming in at 169k vs 177k exp.  Also, July and June numbers were revised down.  The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.3% due to a drop in the Participation Rate to 63.2%.  The equity markets had an extremely volatile day, first rallying on reduced fears of tapering, then plummetting on reports that Putin had said he'd continue to support Syria in the event of a US strike.  By the end of the day, the Dow closed down 14 but the S&P managed a small positive advance.  Oil (WTI) closed over $110/brl!!
• Weekend news:  
• Australia...The conservative political party (called the Liberal Party) won election, putting Tony Abbott in place as the next Prime Minister.
• EU formally declines to support President Obama's Syria military strike plan.
• President Obama's teams hit the TV talk shows Sunday morning to press the case for striking Syria.  While Senate approval appears likely, the House remains quite divided despite House Republican leadership support. 
• Tokyo...selected as city for Olympic Summer Games 2020
• Monday Morning...5:00am ET...
• Japan...revises Q2 GDP up to 3.8% (0.9% q/q) fr prev estimate of 2.6% (0.6% q/q).  Nikkei rallies over 2%.  Also, helping markets was the Olympic 2020 selection as host city.
• China...strong trade data over the weekend, showing export growth of over 7% y/y and tame inflation data this morning @ 2.6% helped set positive tone in equity markets.
• Australia...rallies on weekend victory of conservative party.
• Europe...little in the way of economic data, market is mixed ahead of US open, anticipating more Syria talk as President Obama plans to address the nation on Tuesday night to build support for a military strike.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.