Monday, September 9, 2013

Morning Memo: Monday, September 9, 2013

ICYMI...See links below to our latest global macro views and portfolio positions in our August Investor Newsletter and in a published article on SeekingAlpha.

Soos Global Investor Newsletter, August 2013

Published on SeekingAlpha:  "Not an August August for Markets.  Why?  (Portfolio winners, losers and new position)"  

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00 am...
  • Before starting the week, a quick recap of action on last Thursday and Friday.
    • Thursday:  though the S&P climbed slightly, that hid the more compelling action of the day in US Tsy bonds, where the 10yr yield climbed to levels not seen since July 2011, flirting with 3%!  Stronger economic news on jobless claims, Q2 productivity, ISM services, and factory orders all helped keep the S&P in the black and bond yields rising as expectations of tapering grow ahead of the FOMC's next meeting on Sept 17/18.
    • FridayThe NFP data disappointed big-time, coming in at 169k vs 177k exp.  Also, July and June numbers were revised down.  The Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.3% due to a drop in the Participation Rate to 63.2%.  The equity markets had an extremely volatile day, first rallying on reduced fears of tapering, then plummetting on reports that Putin had said he'd continue to support Syria in the event of a US strike.  By the end of the day, the Dow closed down 14 but the S&P managed a small positive advance.  Oil (WTI) closed over $110/brl!!
  • Weekend news:  
    • Australia...The conservative political party (called the Liberal Party) won election, putting Tony Abbott in place as the next Prime Minister.
    • EU formally declines to support President Obama's Syria military strike plan.
    • President Obama's teams hit the TV talk shows Sunday morning to press the case for striking Syria.  While Senate approval appears likely, the House remains quite divided despite House Republican leadership support. 
    • Tokyo...selected as city for Olympic Summer Games 2020
  • Monday Morning...5:00am ET...
  • Japan...revises Q2 GDP up to 3.8% (0.9% q/q) fr prev estimate of 2.6% (0.6% q/q).  Nikkei rallies over 2%.  Also, helping markets was the Olympic 2020 selection as host city.
  • China...strong trade data over the weekend, showing export growth of over 7% y/y and tame inflation data this morning @ 2.6% helped set positive tone in equity markets.
  • Australia...rallies on weekend victory of conservative party.
  • Europe...little in the way of economic data, market is mixed ahead of US open, anticipating more Syria talk as President Obama plans to address the nation on Tuesday night to build support for a military strike.
  • more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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