Monday, September 30, 2013

Morning Memo: Monday, September 30, 2013

ICYMI:   Our latest thought piece on thematic investing:

From Potholes to Pipelines: Investing in Infrastructure Build-out (CAT, DE, KYN, WM, XLU)


"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...
  • Note:  Review of last Thursday (Dow up 55) and Friday (Dow down 70)
    • US Budget debate (debacle?) taking center stage, keeping equity markets on edge.
    • US House of Representatives votes to delay funding of Obamacare for one year. 
    • US Senate puts the funding back in.  The budget battle is in full gear as the September 30 fiscal yearend draws near.
    • Japan CPI strongest in five years, seen as early sign of success of Abe's stimulus policies aimed at igniting the Japanese economy.
    • Jobless Claims better than expected.
    • Pending Home sales better than expected.
    • Personal Income and Spending better than expected.
    • US Q2 GDP third estimate left unched at 2.5%.
    • Good economic data in the US still stimulates 'tapering' fears, putting pressure on equities.
    • Italian politics heating up as Berlusconi's recent conviction on tax fraud and upcoming one year prison (house arrest) sentence, seems to have only emboldened him and his party to make demands on the existing coalition. Ministers from Berlusconi's party resigned from PM Letta's coalition govt. Talk over the weekend of Berlusconi calling for snap elections.
    • Eurozone Retail PMI data (from Markit) showed a drop in September to 48.6 from over 50 in August. Despite the relatively light showing in September, the Q3 average (49.5) was highest since Q2 2011.
    • US Tsys rallied on the week.
    • Oil fell as the US involvement in the Syrian conflict remains in 'dialogue' rather than in 'military action'.
    • President Obama and Iranian President Rouhani spoke by phone re trying to resolve the differences on Iran's nuclear program.  (All while reports surface that Iran has hacked US Navy computers).
    • UN Security Council votes unanimously to secure and destroy Syria's chemical weapons.  Russia pushed this diplomatic solution to ward off a US military strike.
    • Earnings info from FactSet
      • Estimates for Q3 EPS have fallen 2.6% since June 30.
      • Y/Y growth in EPS is expected to be 3.2%.  On June 30, that y/y estimate was for  6.5%.  Lower guidance from a substantial percentage of S&P companies explains the drop.
      • 82% of S&P companies that have issued Q3 EPS guidance have issued negative guidance, compared to a five-year average of only 62%. 
    • China..HSBC Mftg PMI final # disappoints @ 50.2 in Sept vs prelim estimate of 51.2.  The report showed some increase in activity from US and European customers, but still questionable strength in domestic demand.
    • Asia stocks broadly lower on  China's disappointing PMI and on US budget battles.
    • Japan...BoJ meeting this week.  Also, Prime Minister Abe likely to announce  he'll proceed w/a sales tax increase to 8% fr 5% for next year.
    • Europe...equity markets lower on China's PMI, US budget issues, and Italian politics!  
    • Italy..Berlusconi's ministers have left the gov't.  PM Letta is scrambling to re-form a coalition.  Italian bonds yields have jumped close to 20 bps to 4.67%.
    • more later...
  • Later:
    • Germany...disappointing Retail Sales, +0.5% vs exp 0.9%.  Bund 10yr off 1bp to 1.775%.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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