Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Morning Memo: Tuesday, October 1, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...
  • US Govt shutdown...failure to reach agreement before midnight resulted in US gov't shutting down, first time in nearly two decades.  Markets generally higher and calmer in a 'sell on the rumor, buy on the news' mode.
  • Japan...the Tankan Survey, Japan's quarterly business sentiment survey, was better than expected, showing the highest rate since Dec 2007.  Nikkei rallied on the news, despite the US gov't shutdown.
  • Japan....strong Tankan leaves market anticipating PM Abe going ahead with his planned sales tax hike for 2014.  (There was some decline in corporate capital investment plans in the survey, but not negative enough to block the overall strength of the report and lead the way to the sales tax hike).
  • China's official Mftg PMI rose to 51.1 in Sept from 51.0 in Aug, slightly below expectations 51.6, but close to HSBC's 51.2 reported on Monday.
  • Taiwan...manufacturing improves to 18-mth high in HSBC survey, due to demand from China, US and Europe.
  • Australia....Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unched @ 2.5%, as expected.
  • India..HSBC's mftg survey for September showed the weight of a weakened Rupee on manufacturers dependent on imported goods.  The survey was still below the 50 mark, @ 49.6, up fr 48.5 in prev month, but still in the below-50 contraction zone.
  • Italy...focus remains on PM Letta's ability to keep the gov't together without Berlusconi's party, or possibly, seeing some from Berlusconi's party split ranks and join w/Letta.  Markets calmer so far on the hopes of a resolution.
  • Germany...unemployment slightly worse than expected @ 6.9% vs 6.8% exp.
  • Eurozone PMI's show mixed results. Overall number in line w/expectations at 51.1.  Here's a chart from Financial Times' fastFT, compiled by Markit:
  • Eurozone Unemployment unched from prior month @ 12%. (ECB meeting tomorrow will watch this closely).
  • more later...
  • Later:
    • US..ISM factory index hits 2 yr high!
    • US...gov't shutdown underway.  Jobs data this Friday may not be issued if shutdown persists!
 Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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