Monday, October 14, 2013

Morning Memo: Monday, October 14, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...
  • US budget and debt ceiling talks continued through the weekend with the Senate leaders McConnell and Reid seemingly close to an agreement, but not able to move forward yet.  Deadlocked!
  • Asia..Japan and Hong Kong closed for holdiays 
  • China...Trade data disappoints with a surprising 0.3% y/y drop in exports, raising worries about a slowing global demand in September.  Slowing demand from EM countries who've been hit with currency weakness since 'taper-talk' started, and slowing in exports to the US contributed to  the drop in exports vs expectations of a 5.5% increase!
  • China...Consumer Inflation rose 3.1% y/y, higher than expected, largely due to higher food prices. This is an acceleration from last month's 2.6% y/y rate.  Reminder:  the gov't has set 3.5% as their 'upper limit' on inflation, 7.5% as their 'lower limit' on GDP which will be announced for Q3 on Friday.  Mkt expects 7.8% GDP growth in Q3 (Q2 was 7.5%, Q1 7.7%) Producer Prices continue decelerating, down 1.3% y/y in September.
  • India....cyclone slams eastern coast.  Largest such storm in years.  Many feared dead. Destruction massive.
  • India..inflation @ 6.46%, a six month high in the Wholesale Price Index.
  • mixed but generally lower on deadlock in US budget talks and on weak Chinese export data.
  • Eurozone...Industrial Production better than expected in August.
  • sale prices fall   
  • US..Columbus Day..Bond markets closed.  Stocks open.
  • more later...
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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