Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Morning Memo: Wednesday, October 9, 2013

ICYMI...Yesterday, we provided the following list of more substantive pieces that we've posted in recent weeks.  Would love to hear any feedback, comments, thoughts, etc.  Please make use of the "Chat" and email "Contact" features on this site.  Thanks!

Soos Global Market Musings: Links to Recent Postings

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...

  • Asia....opened lower on the heels of the bashing of US markets yesterday.  More conflict in Washington re budget and debt ceiling, coupled with the IMF's lowering of global growth forecasts, weighed heavily on markets in NY, and that carried over into Asia. Late word out of the US that President Obama would nominate Janet Yellen as Bernanke's successor helped markets recover some, as she is seen as more dovish on rates than other possible candidates.
  • Alcoa (AA)...also helping overseas markets stabilize were Alcoa's (AA) earnings. Though revenues fell, earnings beat on good cost controls.  More importantly, for markets, AA's outlook on global growth and demand for aluminum in autos and aerospace industries was optimistic.  That gave a boost to markets.
  • Asia markets ended mixed with the Nikkei up over 1% on weaker Yen.
  • Europe....also weighed down by US issues.
  • UK...big downward surprise in Industrial Production!  Fell 1.1% m/m in August. Negative news that runs counter to the recent spate of positive data especially in housing.
  • US...yesterday's one-month T-bill rates climbed to the highest since '08, seen by many as a sign of market pricing in a demand for a premium yield on US debt, nervousness over possible funding issues due to debt ceiling, and potential inadequate market liquidity.
  • more later....
  • Later:
    • (Editorial point of interest:  Emerging markets HSBC index showing trending GDP (black line) and Composite Output Index (red line).  Recovery in Output index, while up slightly in past month, looks to be struggling/stalling.

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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