Thursday, November 14, 2013

Morning Memo: Thursday, November 14, 2013 (Updated: 9:16am ET)

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  • In a word:  UP!!
  • Equities....up.   Bonds....up.   Gold.....up.  Silver...up.  Oil...up.
  • That pretty much summarizes the overnight session in Asia and Europe!
  • Asia....yesterday's late in the day release of comments that Yellen will make today in front of the Senate, indicating strong support for QE and citing the still-too-high unemployment level and overall sub-par growth economy, sent equities rallying and bond yields lower.
  • Japan...GDP for three-months ending Sept was better than expected @ annualized rate of 1.9%, but half of the rate seen in the first half of the year (4.3% in Q1 and 3.8% in Q2)  Slower demand from EM countries took its toll on growth.
  • India...wholesale inflation hits 8-mth high!  Confirms the central bank's struggle to control inflation, support the currency, deal w/current acct deficit, all while promoting growth.
  • Eurozone...GDP for Q3 falls short @ +0.1%, vs 0.3% in the prior quarter.  France surprised to the downside w/a 0.1% contraction for the quarter, along w/inflation hitting a four year low.  Germany continued to grow 0.3%, but growth slowed fr 0.7% prior quarter.  Italy's GDP fell by 0.1%, but better than -0.3% prior quarter.
  • UK...Retail Sales worse than expected in October.
  • Editorial note:  don't be distracted by the 'red' news above. The markets appear to be shrugging off the bad economic data and instead feasting on Yellen's upcoming remarks supportive of Fed stimulus.  One might wonder, however, where the risks now lie with respect to Yellen's comments.  Could she be even more dovish than is already being priced in?  Or is it more likely that she could disappoint and actually come across less dovish?  Hmmmm.....)
  • more later.....
  • LATER:
    • US...non-farm productivity growth in Q3 up 1.9%.  Revised down in Q2. But overall, productivity is likely viewed as still strong enough to keep unit labor costs contained.
    • US...Jobless Claims disappoint.  339k vs 330k exp.
    • US...Trade Deficit rose 8% in September . A slip in exports and a rise in imports indicate impacts of slower global growth on the US economy. 
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.


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