Morning Memo: Tuesday, October 8, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia...opened lower on the heels of yesterday's US selloff, but recovered on little in the way of news.  China's markets re-opened after a one-week holiday.  
• China...HSBC services PMI fell from 52.8 in August to 52.4 in September, but still above 50 indicating expansion.  (Last week, by contrast, the gov't's official number for non-manufacturing PMI was reported at a six month high).
• India...cut rates from 9.5% to 9.0%!  Equity markets rallied.  The Bank of India had been raising rates recently in order to prop up the falling Rupee, but the currency has stabilized since the Fed delayed tapering.
• Japan..Current Account Surplus plunged in August by over 60%, far worse than expectations of an increase of 18%!  Indicates far less income from abroad on investments, while the trade deficit remained steady.
• Australia..Business confidence survey hits 3 yr high.
• Europe...US shutdown jitters still hover over markets with Europe generally lower in early hours.
• Earnings season begins tonight w/Alcoa after the close.
• more later..... 
• Later....
• PMI Manufacturing Summary from Markit: 

  US #steel using manufacturers continued to outperform in September; Asian firms remained laggards #PMI http://t.co/mQQb0XGCu7
  — Markit Commodities (@MarkitCommods) October 8, 2013

  
  
  
• And in a reminder that all is not rosy in Europe:

  Depressing RT @cigolo: Bad loans at Italian banks and yoy change pic.twitter.com/IwrDDSZlPl
  — Fabrizio Goria (@FGoria) October 8, 2013

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Monday, October 7, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia...Markets broadly lower on stalled US budget talks!  No progress over the weekend on re-opening the US gov't, and looming debt ceiling deadline, keeping tensions in global markets high.
• Nikkei down over 1% to a one month low.  An early rally fueled by rumors that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund would increase it's allocation to growth stocks, faded as the Yen strengthened (which generally hurts the Nikkei due to the impact on exporters).The Prime Minister also indicated that key labor market reforms might be stalled.
• China's Shanghai closed for last day of holiday. 
• Taiwan...exports fell more than 7%, more than expected, in September, indicating weaker demand for Taiwan's consumer electronic products.
• World Bank..in it's semi-annual economic report, lowered their growth forecast for East Asia developing nations due to weak commodity prices, slowing consumer demand and China's move to boost their own domestic demand vs exports.
• Europe...following Asia lower in early hours, down broadly, largely on concerns over US budget impasse.
• US....global geopolitical risks were elevated as the US ramped up operations against terrorists in Africa this weekend w/raids in Libya and Somalia. 
• Earnings season begins this week w/Alcoa on Tuesday.
• more later....

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Friday, October 4, 2013

ICYMI:  out latest investor portfolio update:

"What's" On Our Shopping List For "When" the Time is Right?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• US gov't shutdown makes this a non-non-farm-payroll Friday!
• Asia...equity markets mixed but generally lower w/the Nikkei off close to 1%.  US shutdown and looming debt ceiling (October 17) weighing on markets.
• Japan....BoJ kept policy unched, as widely expected stating the "economy is recovering moderately".
• Non-Japan Asia....the FT reports, citing HSBC research, that Japan's lending and direct foreign investment into ASEAN countries (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) such as Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, is growing, partly as a way to diversify away from China and partly due to growing consumer base and export markets.   
• India....HSBC/Markit's service sector survey hits lowest level since '09! This comes days after the manufacturing sector survey also showed weakness.
• Europe...generally lower on US woes.
• UK...car sales at highest level in 5 yrs, adding to recent data from the housing sector that the economy is improving.
• Company news of possible broader market implications:
• Adobe...announced a huge cybersecurity breach where some of their source code was stolen, opening up the possibility for the hackers to breach Adobe users.  (Editorial note:  cybersecurity is one of our key investment themes).
• more later...

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

"What's" On Our Shopping List For "When" the Time is Right?

The "what" always seems easier to answer than the "when".   As I've indicated in many recent missives, I've been very defensive with the portfolios, holding historically high levels of cash, looking to put that cash to work in quality names when/if the market loses ground in the face of many of the economic and geopolitical headwinds that have been cited here frequently.  With the US Government is perma-hold mode, or at least appearing so, the market has been pulling back, and while the degree of the damage will likely be correlated to events in Washington, it's certainly a good time to review what stocks and ETFs might be candidates for adding to the portfolios when the "when" seems right.

The note below was sent to investors yesterday as an update on various assets that I'm considering, at appropriate valuation levels, each in line with the various thematic value opportunities that make up our global investment strategies.

Your feedback, thoughts or questions about any of the names can be communicated to us through the "Live Chat" or "Contact Form" features on the right hand side of this page.  We look forward to hearing from you!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Fyi….In addition to my publically available articles  and blogs, I’m sending the following update to investors as an fyi as to what I’m watching closely as possible adds to the CORE and IRA strategies and some separately managed portfolios.  While I’m still quite defensive overall, there are some names that are getting close to compelling valuations.  Please let me know if you have any questions or thoughts on any of the names/themes mentioned.  Thanks:

Ø  Himax Technologies (HIMX): semiconductor stock.  Looks like a good fit around some of the other tech names in the strategies.  Makes integrated circuits used in all kinds of things like flat screen tv’s, computer/pad/phone screens, and special technology for what I think will be the next fad: wearables.

Ø  Accenture (ACN):  similar to IBM in that they’re in the computer services and advisory business.  Some of these ‘top 50 tech trends’ charts highlight why this ought to be in favor over time.

Ø  Unilever (UN):  They got hammered on their lowered guidance, citing the emerging market fx situation as doing damage to their business in those countries.  But overall, quality country, industry leader, and I think that ultimately the EM presence will be a net positive as the middle-classes emerge!

Ø  In names that we already own or that have been on the shopping list for a while:

o   Norfolk Southern (NSC)..on improving rail shipments of goods, especially coal, as world economies improve slightly.

o   Davita Healthcare (DVA) and Fresenius (FMS)….both on the ‘obesi-fication’ theme.

o   Waste Management (WM)..on the waste collection, removal and conversion to energy theme.

o   Consumer discretionary names on the expanding middle class in Emerging Markets theme:  Nike (NKE), McDonalds (MCD)

o   Paychex (PAYX):  on expanding employment and payroll/human resource services.

o   Kayne Anderson (KYN) on the US energy infrastructure buildout theme.

o   Citigroup (C): on the new management turnaround theme!

o   Bond substitutes:  XLU (Utility ETF), Senior Housing (SNH) and Omega Healthcare (OHI)

Will keep you posted.

Ed

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs including but not limited to XLU, SNH, OHI, C, KYN, PAYX, NKE, MCD, WM, DVA, NSC, ACN, UN.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Thursday, October 3, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia..markets opened lower on the heels of US weak performance, then rebounded to close mixed on strong non-manufacturing PMI (official) data from China.  The number for September was 55.4, a six month high, up from 53.9 in August.
• Asia growth forecasts from HSBC....the FT summarizes a research report from HSBC in which they lowered the growth forecasts for Asia ex-Japan for 2014, but raised 2013.
• Italy...markets remain strong following yesterday's win by PM Letta in the confidence vote.
• Europe...service sector PMI data from Markit were generally better than expected and in Markit's words:  "provided further evidence that the Eurozone recovery gathered pace".  Here's a chart that appeared in the FTs fastFT:  
• 
  
  
• US..Gov't shutdown continues.  The meeting late yesterday between the President and  Congressional leaders produced no positive results!
• more later....
• LATER:
• Jobless Claims...better than expected: Up 1k to 308k, but below consensus 313k exp.  Charts from CalculatedRiskBlog.com:
• 
  
•  
  

• US...ISM Services worse than expected @ 54.4 vs exp 57.2

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Wednesday, October 2, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• Asia...markets mostly lower following yesterday's up-trade in the US. Concern about US shutdown prevails as does the October 17 debt ceiling deadline.
• Some Asia Emerging Markets traded higher on the thought that a US shutdown would imply a continuation of Fed easy-money policy for some time and would delay tapering.
• China...markets closed for holiday.
• Japan...PM Abe did announce the consumption tax hike as expected, along w/further stimulus measures.  Nikkei fell over 2%, seemingly a 'sell on the news' event.  (Editorial note:  the markets have appeared to price in all the good news that Abe-nomics could possibly deliver, and as a result, asymmetric return outlook is possible:  down on disappointment if the policies fail, down on profit-taking if the policies succeed, but much of the 'up' already priced in.)
• Europe....broadly lower ahead of today's ECB meeting and following Asia's declines and attention to the US shutdown.  Also on the heels of yesterday's announcement by Unilever (UN) that weakness in Emerging Markets currencies would weigh on earnings in coming quarters.  Given UN's size in the consumer products space and in EM countries, this was seen as having broader, market-wide implications.  EM currencies, that had been battered since 'tapering' talk began, did recover some after the Fed's recent decision to hold off on tapering.  But that rally has faded.  (See FT article EM Currencies Give Up Post Fed Gains)
• Italy...PM Letta called for a confidence vote on his gov't today.  Tensions remain high.
• more later...
• Later:
• Italy...Letta wins confidence vote after Berlusconi, in a surprise move, decides to support the government!
•  US..ADP jobs data misses expectations and prior month revised lower!

 Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.

Morning Memo: Tuesday, October 1, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...

• US Govt shutdown...failure to reach agreement before midnight resulted in US gov't shutting down, first time in nearly two decades.  Markets generally higher and calmer in a 'sell on the rumor, buy on the news' mode.
• Japan...the Tankan Survey, Japan's quarterly business sentiment survey, was better than expected, showing the highest rate since Dec 2007.  Nikkei rallied on the news, despite the US gov't shutdown.
• Japan....strong Tankan leaves market anticipating PM Abe going ahead with his planned sales tax hike for 2014.  (There was some decline in corporate capital investment plans in the survey, but not negative enough to block the overall strength of the report and lead the way to the sales tax hike).
• China's official Mftg PMI rose to 51.1 in Sept from 51.0 in Aug, slightly below expectations 51.6, but close to HSBC's 51.2 reported on Monday.
• Taiwan...manufacturing improves to 18-mth high in HSBC survey, due to demand from China, US and Europe.
• Australia....Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unched @ 2.5%, as expected.
• India..HSBC's mftg survey for September showed the weight of a weakened Rupee on manufacturers dependent on imported goods.  The survey was still below the 50 mark, @ 49.6, up fr 48.5 in prev month, but still in the below-50 contraction zone.
• Italy...focus remains on PM Letta's ability to keep the gov't together without Berlusconi's party, or possibly, seeing some from Berlusconi's party split ranks and join w/Letta.  Markets calmer so far on the hopes of a resolution.
• Germany...unemployment slightly worse than expected @ 6.9% vs 6.8% exp.
• Eurozone PMI's show mixed results. Overall number in line w/expectations at 51.1.  Here's a chart from Financial Times' fastFT, compiled by Markit:
•   
• Eurozone Unemployment unched from prior month @ 12%. (ECB meeting tomorrow will watch this closely).
• more later...
• Later:
• US..ISM factory index hits 2 yr high!
• US...gov't shutdown underway.  Jobs data this Friday may not be issued if shutdown persists!

 Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

(Sign up to "Follow by Email"!  And share with others!)

(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
Disclaimer: Please read and consider important information related to all communication made by Soos Global on this site by clicking here.
Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs.  Positions may change at any time without notice.