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Below are a few excerpts from emails and/or phone calls on a variety of investment topics that I’ve had w/investors over the course of the past month.  Thought you’d find them of interest…..

Best,

Ed

Friday, May 16, 2014:  Fyi….just had a chat re Google (GOOGL).  I cut/paste the gist of it, along w/an interesting chart, below.  Take note especially of the three boxes at the bottom of the chart, the first showing the relative price performance of Google vs the S&P, the next showing Google vs the Tech Sector (using an ETF), and the third one showing the Tech Sector vs the S&P.  Fyi….

Btw, I’m still eyeing GOOGL.  Don’t own it yet.  But among all the internet cos, I like them the most, especially due to their diversification into all kinds of businesses including energy, wearables, semi-conductors (they own a stake in HImax, which is one of my holdings).  Check out the chart below.  After a moonshot run over a the past couple of years, GOOGL is finally underperforming.  From a valuation perspective, I’m looking at levels sub-$500.  But a stock like this still has lots of hype and emotion value….would love to see some more of that swept away before entering.  Will keep you posted.

Ed

 

Thursday, May 29, 2014:  fyi….interesting article in Barron’s on one of our themes/holdings (Cinemark (CNK))…..On top of the many positives noted in the article, I’d add the company’s balance sheet and dividend, in addition to the industry’s general countercyclical tendencies…..fyi….

http://on.barrons.com/1tqSKsR

Wednesday, June 11, 2014:  The market is currently off over 100 points, partly on concerns over valuations (most indices at all-time highs) as economic data continues to be spotty around the globe, and high levels of future earnings growth, therefore, become more suspect.

From the world stage “risk-ometer”, the crisis currently unfolding in Iraq is a potential destabilizing event not just for Iraq but possibly, more broadly, across the region, impacting oil supply chains, and other trade routes through the region.

Here in the US, the surprising ouster of Cantor from the House leadership is a major blow to the seemingly widely-held view among market participants that the pre-mid-term election period leading up to November would be, at worst, benign for markets, and more likely, might be an unusual period of cooperation in DC in order to get market-friendly legislation done.  Now, all of that is up in the air, as the Tea Party is expected to recharge their batteries after last night’s victory in Virginia and to start stoking the coals of dissent on a number of contentious issues.

In recent weeks I’ve been maintaining the overall risk exposure in the strategies, still somewhat defensive with high levels of cash, heavy weightings in defensive sectors, and only nibbling on what appear to be oversold quality companies.

Today’s events are likely to keep me holding on even tighter to our cash position, and to ratchet up considerations of profit taking on some recently strong movers.

Will keep you posted with more specifics in coming days.

Best,

Ed

 



Friday, June 13, 2014:  Fyi….the link below is to an analysis on Stratfor re what I noted the other day regarding Iraq and ISIS (or as they call it ISIL….Islamic State in Iraq & the Levant).  The article is a good summary of the overall strategic motivations of ISIS in having undertaken this move in Iraq.
Stratfor seems to conclude that ISIS will hold short of Baghdad and might just settle with the massive gains they’ve made in Sunni regions in the western part of Iraq, similar to what they’ve done in eastern Syria.  But the key, as they conclude, is that now there is a larger staging area for all of their sinister efforts.
I remain convinced that this is a game-changer in the region from a risk-ometer perspective…..oil prices….further dislocations of trade routes….more terror activities at a ‘state actor’ level…bad for global economies….bad for earnings outlooks.  Western response will be key in order to assess just how much of a ‘game-changer’ this becomes.
Will keep you posted as I adjust our portfolio risk positions accordingly.
Fyi….
Ed


http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/logic-underpinning-militant-offensive-iraq

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs incl CNK.  Positions may change at any time without notice.