Sunday, August 4, 2013

Weekend Memo: Sunday, August 4, 2013 & Morning Memo: Monday, August 5, 2013

"Weekend Memo" is a supplement to our daily "Morning Memo" series. Monday's Morning Memo is added below.
For 'newcomers' to our site, here's the story:
Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!  

Sunday, 5:30pm ET...

  • US...significant threat closes 22 embassies. Intercepted AL-Qaeda communications sent a global alert in motion with the US and other countries closing many embassies and issues travel warnings.
  • Australia...elections set for Sept 7.  PM Rudd's Labor Party will face Abbott's Liberal-National party coalition.  The focus will be on the economy in the face of the downturn in the mining sector which has weighed on Australia's exports.
  • UK...this Wednesday, Bk of England's new gov Carney will unveil 'guidance' for the first time, sharing with the market some language as to where rates in the UK will be and for how long.  For a long time, inflation targeting was the BoE's focus.  This could change to something like the US where unemployment and inflation targets are the signals for possible policy changes based on the economy reaching 'escape velocity'.
  • China....ordered the recall of potentially contaminated milk imported from New Zealand.  90% of China's imported milk comes from New Zealand.  The milk products are suspected of causing botulism.
  • Economic data this week is relatively light w/ISM Services on Monday, Trade Balance on Tuesday, and Jobless Claims on Thurs.  See for forecasts.
  • more later....
Morning Memo:  Monday, August 5, 2013
5:30am ET....
  • Asia markets mixed...Nikkei down 1.5% despite generally strong earnings reports. (From MarketWatch: Nikkei business daily reported that consolidated pretax profits for the 668 listed companies that have already announced earnings rose an average 42% in the April-to-June quarter compared to the year-earlier period)
  • Australia's S&P/ASX200 off slightly, and South Korea's Kospi down.  
  • Chinese exchanges were higher on both official business activity Services PMI data over the weekend that showed improvement in July to 54.1 from 53.9 in June.  HSBC's unofficial estimate also came out above 50 indicating cont'd expansion.
  • India...Services PMI fell below 50 for the first time since April '09.
  • European mkts open slightly higherServices sector PMI data for the Eurozone were inline.  Germany was wte (worse than expected), France and Italy were bte (better than expected). Spain's services PMI improved to 48.5 from 47.8, but still in contraction mode.
  •  From the Financial Times' FastFT, this is a chart of the Eurozone Composite PMI, including manufacturing and service sectors.  The Composite (blue line) improved to 50.5 vs 50.4 exp, marking "expansion": (Green shoots????)

  • more later....
  • US Service sector ISM bte @ 56% in July up from 52.2% in June.
  • Fed's Fisher says closer to tapering since jobs data.

Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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