Thursday, December 26, 2013

Morning Memo: Thursday, December 26, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  
We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!
5:00am ET...
  •  WEDNESDAY:
    • Turkey...three ministers quit government over rising tensions related to corruption scandel investigation.
    • Egypt...tensions remain high as the interim gov't declares the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization.
    • Nikkei...closes above 16,000 helped by stronger USD vs Yen.
    • China...mkts moved higher on Wednesday helped by the central bank's governor re-assuring markets of more economic reforms, and a more flexible currency.
    • WSJ...running a series of Asia economists' views on 2014.  Here's the first:
      • Data from Tuesday worth noting:
  • THURSDAY:
    • Nikkei...extended its run above 16,000 on a weaker Yen and on PM Abe's comments this weak that he'd announce more reform measures in June aimed to bring more women into the workforce.
    • China...markets fell, reversing recent days' gains as the central bank did not inject liquidity to fight rising short-term money market rates.
    •  Japan...PM visits Yasukuni war shrine, a move that angered China and other neighboring countries given its historical significance as a sign of Japanese imperialism.
    • Europe...London remains closed for the holiday.
    • Ukraine...violent attacks are reported to have been made on anti-government protesters.
    • Turkey....PM Erdogan replaces 10 ministers after 3 resigned yesterday, all related to an investigation into bribery, corruption and gold smuggling.  The economic impact of the political tensions could put pressure on the Turkish Lira, which could make it more difficult to deal with the current account deficit.
    • South Sudan....Civil war continues; possible oil supply disruption impact??:
    • more later....
    • LATER:
      • Jobless Claims...338k vs 350k est. Four-week moving average jumped 4,250 to 348,000.  Continuing Claims rise to 2.923mm vs 2.85mm est.  Analysts caution that the holiday season makes this data very volatile and therefore suspect.
      •  
        • Emerging middle classes are a key investment theme (long UN):
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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Additional Disclaimer: currently long many stocks/ETFs, incl AEO and UN .  Positions may change at any time without notice.
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