Sunday, December 1, 2013

Morning Memo: Sunday, December 1, 2013 WEEKEND EDITION

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

Noon ET...
  • India...last Friday, reported calendar-Q3 GDP up 4.4% y/y, up fr 4.2% in Q2, better than expectedSome are concerned that GDP remains <5%  for the fourth straight quarter, and expectations for fiscal yr to March '14 are for 4.3%.  Good monsoon rain season and good exports added to growth, but the weaker Rupee earlier this year made financing the current account deficit more difficult, raised inflation to over 10%, and the resultant tightening of rates by the RBI has weighed on growth.
  • China...tensions remain high between China, Japan, Korea and the US over China's declaration of control over airspace over disputed islands.  The US, after having sent B52s into the airspace late last week, over the weekend, told US commercial aircraft to comply.  Japan and Korea have refused.  
  • Greece...Moody's upgrades gov't debt from C to Caa3, noting progress on fiscal austerity and likelihood of meeting fiscal targets.  (Editorial notestill a long way for Greece to go, but on the margin, a good sign of fiscal progress).
  • Russia...Very interesting article re Russia.  (Editorial note:  I haven’t had eyes on it to invest, but rather as a geopolitical risk.  This article spells out how vulnerable Russia is to a real economic problem, which in my mind, would correlate well with all of us facing greater geopolitical risk.  I don’t think it’s too much of a leap to wonder if Ukraine’s recent about-face in their rapprochement w/the EU is driven by an intensifying effort by Putin to force former Soviet bloc countries back into his fold.  Going to be interesting to watch….)
  • Ukraine...protests get violent!   
  • Retail shopping on Thanksgiving weekend:
  • more later....

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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