Thursday, November 28, 2013

Morning Memo: Thursday, November 28, 2013: HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...

  • Pre-Thanksgiving....on Wednesday, after the early morning data which included Jobless Claims (better than expected, though excused away due to seasonal adjustment factors) and Durable Goods (worse than expected, especially core capital goods orders), we had more positive news later in the morning in the form of Michigan Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI (first time over 60 for two consecutive months since Dec'11), which collectively helped give equity markets a boost to the upside w/the Dow closing above 16,000, S&P over 1,800 and Nasdaq over 4,000.
  • Brazil..late Wednesday, Brazil's Central Bank raised rates by 50bp to 10%.  That's the sixth consecutive rate hike, aimed at fighting inflation.  The government meanwhile has been increasing fiscal spending to stimulate the economy.  Pressure on inflation mounted w/a weaker Real, made worse by the US 'tapering talk' began earlier this year.
  • Thanksgiving Day in the closed.
    • Asia....a strong USD (over 102), weak YEN pushed the Nikkei to a six year high!
    • Japan..also helping equities, Retail Sales jumped 2.3% in October.
    • China...tensions remain high over disputed islands in the China Sea.  US and Korea have flown aircraft in the airspace that China has recently declared to be its own.
    • China...announced a draft proposal on reforms to the coal industry, looking to limit production, and adjust tariffs in order to encourage higher quality imports. This is in response to falling coal prices and overproduction of poorer quality coal.
    • Thailand...the PM survives a no-confidence vote, while heated protests continue.
    • sentiment higher for the seventh straight month in November.
    • data out for Q3 shows Spain climbs out of recession in Q3, but just, by +0.1%.  Also, Spain's CPI climbed in November, a counter indicator to the recent fears of deflation in Europe.
    • Italy..former PM Berlusconi was ousted from the Senate following months of turbulent dispute over his political positions after his tax fraud conviction last summer.  Italy's borrowing costs are at the lowest level since April.
    • Germany...Unemployment Rate was unched, but the number of jobless claims rose by 10k, more than expected. And registered demand for labor eased.  
    • Germany..Inflation rose in November driven by the service sector, countered by a decline in energy prices.

    • UK...the central bank's program to fund home buying will be cut back (given the recent signs of house prices rising and activity accelerating), and banks will be encouraged to lend more to small businesses.
    • more later....
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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