Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Morning Memo: November 12, 2013 (Updated: 9:32 am ET)

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...

  • Asia....generally lower, though Japan's Nikkei was a standout, rallying over 2% on a weaker Yen.  Last week's ECB rate cut resulted in money leaving the Euro and going into the USD, resulting in a stronger  USD vs the Yen.  This was despite a Consumer Confidence index posting the lowest reading since Abe took office last Dec!
  • Germany...Inflation in-line, falling 0.2% to 1.2%.  (Editorial note:  Draghi's surprise rate cut last week was fueled by low inflation rates.  Question:  Is it low?  or is it falling?  Is 'deflation' the real threat?  Have a look at Germany's CPI data from the FT's fastFT:
  • UK...Inflation falls to lowest level since Nov. '09!  2.2% vs exp 2.5%.  Also, calming fears of a housing price bubble, September's average house price index fell slightly from August's record high.
  • Of interestthings to ponder....
    • more later.... 
    • LATER:

      • US..Small Business Optimism Index falls in September to lowest level since March. Hurt by gov't shutdown.  The report noted a "precipitous decline in hiring plans".
      • US...Chicago Fed National Activity Index rises in September to 0.14 from Aug 0.13, yet the three-month moving average, which also improved, remains slightly below the zero line, indicating that although the economy is growing, it is still growing just below long-term trend rate (approx 2.5%)
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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