Friday, November 22, 2013

Morning Memo: Friday, November 22, 2013

ICYMI...."CHITS"...Charts In The Spotlight....yesterday's post of noteworthy charts.  For more detail information on how we view these charts, reach out to us via the 'chat' or 'email' features on the right side of this blog.  We'd be delighted to share our thoughts and more details on our positions.

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...
  • Asia...following yesterday's record-setting close in the US equity markets, Asia markets were inclined towards higher levels.  The Senate's confirmation of Yellen as the next Fed governor helped (given her perceived dovish stance on tapering, and despite the previous day's concerns over the now infamous FOMC talk of tapering in "coming months"!), as did the better than expected Jobless Claims number. 
  • Japan...a stronger USD vs YEN  (101.25) helped the Nikkei, as did yesterday's BOJ re-affirmation of the current stimulus program and Abenomics.
  • China...Hong Kong based shares rallied, pushing aside yesterday's concern over worse than expected HSBC/Markit PMI data, and returning to the 'reform euphoria' that was triggered late last week w/China's post-Plenum reform announcements.
  • WTO..the World Trade Organization is reportedly close to a deal including the US and developing nations such as China and India on trade issues (such as easing border bureaucracy, agricultural and development processses) that could add up to $1Tr to the approx $18Tr in global trade.  This would be a positive, yet "lite" version of the failed Doha trade talks of recent years.
  • Germany...IFO Survey of business sentiment beats expectations!! 109.3 vs 107.8 exp.  European markets remain mixed at this time but off earlier lows.
  • Germany...Q3 GDP in line @ +0.3% q/q and +0.6% y/y.  Growth was driven by domestic demand, (with a strong pick up in construction investment) which could pour some cold water on recent global criticism that Germany is solely reliant on export growth!  That said, the domestic demand is still quite small relative to the size of Germany's current account surplus.  And even with the pick up in investment in Q3, overall investment for 2013 will likely decline y/y.  (Chart from Markit)
  • more later....
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.

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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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