Friday, November 8, 2013

Morning Memo: Friday, November 8, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...

  • Asia...lower on the heels of yesterday's selloff in the US and despite yesterday's surprise rate cut by the ECB and seemingly stronger than expected US Q3 GDP.  
  • China...exports rose more than expected (trade data has historically been  quite suspect, giving rise to recent measures by the gov't to crack down on exporter data entry gimmicks), though the news wasn't enough to push markets higher in the face of the selloff in the US and ahead of the Communist Party Plenum this weekend and ahead of weekend releases of Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Inflation data.  Though imports also rose, the overall trade balance improved.
  • Australia..RBA comments leave door open for more rate cuts.  AUD falls on the news.
  • Philippines...massive typhoon strikes with 190mph winds!  Could move on to Vietnam and Laos.
  • Equity flows:  worth noting ANZ's data on cashflows into and out of Asian equity and bond markets, (data sourced from The FT's fastFT:
  • Europe..broadly lower. S&P cuts France's rating to AA from AA+, citing high tax rates as suffocating growth.
  • surplus expands which is likely to further criticism already in place that Germany is not doing enough to pump up domestic demand and remains reliant on export growth.  Exports of goods rose 1.7% m/m, while imports dropped 1.9%! Recent US Treasury Department criticism of Germany's export-dependent model is likely to be supported by this data.
  • US Non-Farm Payroll data coming up....
  • Of interest:
    • On the risks still prevalent in Europe:
  • more later....
  • LATER:
    • US NFPayrolls beat expectations!!  204k vs exp of 100k!!  Markets sell off on renewed expectations of Fed tapering!!
    • US Univ Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  worse than expected! 
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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