Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Morning Memo: Wednesday, November 20, 2013 UPDATED

This is an update to our earlier post:  Morning Memo: Wednesday, November 20, 2013

  • US Retail expectations in October @ 0.4% vs 0.1% exp, and ex-autos up 0.2%, vs 0.1% exp.  Auto sales continue to be a big part of overall spending.  Year-over-year, retail sales rose 3.9% which is still considered underwhelming (average annual since 1980 = 6.3%!), but given the recent Government shutdown, the overall data point is positive.  No visible signs of early boost to sales due to iPhone despite increases in sales in the electronics and appliances category.  Other stronger segments included furniture, apparel, sporting goods and restaurants.  Weaker segments included gasoline stations and building supply.
  • US CPI...slipped 0.1% vs flat exp.  Ex-food & energy +0.1% vs +0.2% exp.  The headline number was first negative since April.  On an y/y basis, inflation is at close to lowest levels since the end of the recession. (Editorial musing:  risk of deflation???  Hmmmm......)
  • US..Existing Home Sales misses expectations in Oct, falling to 5.12mm units, a 3.2% decline fr Sept. with single-family home sales dropping 4.4%!  Months of available supply stayed firm at 5mths as inventory declined.
  • ECB...floats the idea of negative deposit interest rates as a way to stimulate the economy.
  • FOMC Minutes....shows FOMC generally expected data to justify tapering in 'coming months'!
  •  Of interest:  

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