Friday, November 1, 2013

Morning Memo: Friday, November 1, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!

5:00am ET...
  • Asia...mixed markets, but most under the dark cloud of yesterday's drop in the US markets, and still concerned about this week's FOMC message that tapering talk remains on the table.
  • China...Official Manufacturing PMI data from the government rose for the fourth consecutive month in October to 51.4 fr 51.1 in Sept, which was good news, but the guts of the data showed divergence between some strength among larger firms vs some struggling in the smaller size companies.  Also, a drop in the New Orders and New Export Orders sub-indexes raised concerns about the sustainability of recent growth.
  • South Korea...last month's exports beat expectations!  
  • India...Sensex hits new record high!  The equity market rebounded from the summer woes/lows by 18%, with many crediting the new central bank governor with restoring investor confidence.  Today's rally came despite disappointing PMI data from Markit/HSBC that showed a number still below 50. (49.6)
  • Indonesia...heavily reliant on exports of palm oil, rubber and coal to China, saw exports drop more than expected last month, raising more concerns about an already slowing economy.  Q2 GDP had fallen to 5.8%, slowest pace in three years.
  • Taiwan and Vietnam....Markit/HSBC PMI data for both countries were strong citing stronger demand both domestically and in export sectors.
  •  PMI Summary from Markit/HSBC:

  • Europe...lower opening, partly on lingering concerns over yesterday's data in the Eurozone showing higher levels of unemployment and softer inflation, indicating the economy's fragility.
  • more later...
  • Later:
    • US ISM Mftg growth better than expected in October, @ 56.4% highest since April 2011.
    • Markit US manftg PMI final number for October @ 51.8, up fr initial est of 51.1, but below 52.8 in Sept.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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