Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Morning Memo: Wednesday, July 10, 2013

  • China imports and exports wte (worse than expected)!!  Big miss...w/exports down over 3%!  Large drop in both signals even weaker economic picture.  Gov't efforts to crack down on inflated export receipts might have contributed to the export decline.  Shanghai and HK shares rally nonetheless as 'bottom-fishers' appeared to step in and hopes grow that the gov't will continue to navigate towards more stable economy. 
  • Elsewhere, markets were slightly lower....Nikkei and Kospi...both Japan's and Korea's central banks announce policy decisions tomorrow.
  • noted late yesterday, S&P lowers rating one notch to BBB.  Italian 10-yr yield has jumped five basis points to 4.46%. In addition, Spain's benchmark 10-yr yield is higher by 11 basis points at 4.78%
  • CLO's...(collateralized loan obligations)...according to RBS report, leverage in CLO deals jumped in Q2 '13 (here we go again??  2008 revisited???)
  • IMF....late yesterday slashed global growth forecasts citing more weakening in some developing markets(eg: China and Brazil) before the developed markets have fully recovered (eg: US, EZ). 
  • US...Fed minutes from last policy meeting released later today.  Also, Bernanke speaking today..will be watched closely by markets.
  • Fed Minutes....half of Fed members saw QE end late this year....several on Fed saw tapering warranted soon...two on Fed worried about negative QE effect....Nothing turned positive on the headlines.
  • Oil jumped to over $105 on declining inventory data.
  • more later.....

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