Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Morning Memo: Wednesday, July 31, 2013

"Morning Memo" begins below this "NOTE for  NEWCOMERS" to "Morning Memo"...... Each morning, we post a short bullet-point list of noteworthy events, data, etc that find their way into the assessment of global markets.  It's far from complete and is not meant to be an exhaustive reconciliation of all things that could possibly impact stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities!  Rather, it's best viewed as a cryptic memo of "highlights", noteworthy items that took place in Asia, European and US hours.....and color-coded 'Red' for seemingly negative impact on equity markets, 'Green' for positive.
This will also serve as a useful review mechanism, as scrolling through the series of "Morning Memo" posts over time ought to summarily highlight what generally drove price action.  

We hope you find this useful and informative....and as always, that you'll share feedback!!  

5:30am ET...
  • Asia markets generally lower ahead of today's Fed FOMC statement in the afternoon, and before that, this morning's US Q2 GDP initial estimate (exp = 1%).
  • Nikkei down 1.5% on stronger Yen and some disappointing earnings releases. 
  • China was up slightly on comments from senior officials in the Communist Party that they'd keep growth steady in the second half of 2013.
  • Taiwan..Q2 GDP bte (better than expected). 2.3% y/y.  Driven by stronger consumer spending and still strong exports despite the concern that China's slowdown would hurt Taiwan exports.  Recent gov't policies to promote int'l trade and to adjust capital gains tax policy were credited for today's data.
  • Germany...Retail Sales wte (worse than expected)!  Big drop in June offset April and May's positive numbers.  Heavy rains in early June the blame.  Down 1.5% m/m and 2.8% y/y!!  But Unemployment beat forecasts, w/the total jobless down 7k vs flat exp.  Overall rate unched at 6.8%.  
  • (chart sourced from the Financial Times' FastFT.  Shows prior m/m in yellow, and today's actual and revisions in green.)
  • Eurozone Unemployment bte slightly @ 12.1% vs 12.2% exp.
  • more later....
  • US Q2 GDP bte @ 1.7% vs 1.0% exp, on strong consumer spending and business investment...but Q1 revised down fr 1.8% to 1.1%. 
  • US..ADP btw @ 200k vs 183k exp.
  • IMF says Greece's bailout faces Euro11bn shortfall in '15.
  • FOMC...Fed says econ growth is 'modest'.  Keeps QE at current pace.  No comment re tapering. 

  • One last thing...Have you seen our new "chat" and "contact"  features?  Please use them to connect with us with ideas, thoughts, questions, feedback.  (Will be logged into 'chat' during NY market hours, and 'contact' all day.  Looking forward to hearing from you!!).
Please continue to visit Soos Global Market Musings for updates.
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(Please note: This article is solely meant to be thought provoking and is not in any way meant to be personal investment advice. Each investor is obligated to opine and decide for themselves as to the appropriateness of anything said in this article to their unique financial profile, risk tolerances and portfolio goals).
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